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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Avdiivka direction: Advances of the Russian Armed Forces in Umanske
Situation as of the end of May 9, 2024
In recent days, in the Avdiivka direction, the Russian forces have been actively trying to develop successes on several sectors, including those that were shrouded in the "fog of war" for some time.
▪️During the day, footage appeared online of the Russian flag being raised over a memorial in the center of the northern part of Umanske. By the end of the day, there were reports of the complete liberation of the village, although there is no reliable confirmation of this information yet.
▪️At the same time, between Umanske and Orlivka, south of highway C051801, there is a fortified area stretching for about two kilometers. Given the configuration of the front line, it is highly likely that it also came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces - without capturing it, it would have been quite a difficult task to advance into Umanske.
▪️Further south, in Netailovo, a decrease in the concentration of enemy manpower was noted - whether this is due to a lack of reinforcements or the withdrawal of the AFU is difficult to say for now. According to the latest information, Russian troops are engaged in heavy fighting in the center of the settlement.
▪️In the northern sector, in the area of Arkhanhel'ske, Russian Armed Forces units are entrenching on previously occupied lines, continuing to clear the area west of the settlement. They did not attempt any counterattacks by the AFU over the past day.
If you have any additions to the situation, or if you would like us to highlight the successes of your unit, you can always write to us in the feedback bot @rybar_feedback_bot.
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Situation as of the end of May 9, 2024
In recent days, in the Avdiivka direction, the Russian forces have been actively trying to develop successes on several sectors, including those that were shrouded in the "fog of war" for some time.
▪️During the day, footage appeared online of the Russian flag being raised over a memorial in the center of the northern part of Umanske. By the end of the day, there were reports of the complete liberation of the village, although there is no reliable confirmation of this information yet.
▪️At the same time, between Umanske and Orlivka, south of highway C051801, there is a fortified area stretching for about two kilometers. Given the configuration of the front line, it is highly likely that it also came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces - without capturing it, it would have been quite a difficult task to advance into Umanske.
▪️Further south, in Netailovo, a decrease in the concentration of enemy manpower was noted - whether this is due to a lack of reinforcements or the withdrawal of the AFU is difficult to say for now. According to the latest information, Russian troops are engaged in heavy fighting in the center of the settlement.
▪️In the northern sector, in the area of Arkhanhel'ske, Russian Armed Forces units are entrenching on previously occupied lines, continuing to clear the area west of the settlement. They did not attempt any counterattacks by the AFU over the past day.
If you have any additions to the situation, or if you would like us to highlight the successes of your unit, you can always write to us in the feedback bot @rybar_feedback_bot.
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🇷🇺🇺🇦🌉 On the strike by the Russian Armed Forces on the bridge near Stary Saltov
Recently, footage has appeared of a night strike by the Russian Armed Forces on the bridge over the Seversky Donets river near the settlement of Stary Saltov, where an X-38 air-to-surface missile definitely hit the target. The object has a rather curious history:
▪️The bridge near Stary Saltov was first blown up by the Ukrainian forces on March 5, 2022, in order to hinder the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the vicinity of Kharkiv.
▪️By the summer of 2022, the AFU had set up a pontoon vehicle crossing next to the object on the other bank of the Seversky Donets, and by the winter of 2023, they had partially restored it, installing a railway span for pedestrian traffic on the destroyed part.
Coordinates:
Although the recording was made from a great distance and in the dark, the video clearly shows a powerful explosion and the "spreading" parts. Therefore, we can confidently say that the crossing at this section has been disabled again.
The effective Russian strike will somewhat complicate the logistics of the AFU and the transfer of equipment to the left bank of the river, which is especially relevant against the background of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the border area. Therefore, the enemy will clearly try to quickly set up new pontoons in the near future.
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Recently, footage has appeared of a night strike by the Russian Armed Forces on the bridge over the Seversky Donets river near the settlement of Stary Saltov, where an X-38 air-to-surface missile definitely hit the target. The object has a rather curious history:
▪️The bridge near Stary Saltov was first blown up by the Ukrainian forces on March 5, 2022, in order to hinder the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the vicinity of Kharkiv.
▪️By the summer of 2022, the AFU had set up a pontoon vehicle crossing next to the object on the other bank of the Seversky Donets, and by the winter of 2023, they had partially restored it, installing a railway span for pedestrian traffic on the destroyed part.
Coordinates:
50.0770875, 36.8116638Although the recording was made from a great distance and in the dark, the video clearly shows a powerful explosion and the "spreading" parts. Therefore, we can confidently say that the crossing at this section has been disabled again.
The effective Russian strike will somewhat complicate the logistics of the AFU and the transfer of equipment to the left bank of the river, which is especially relevant against the background of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the border area. Therefore, the enemy will clearly try to quickly set up new pontoons in the near future.
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🇷🇺🇺🇦🖇 Yesterday, the publication The Economist published an interview with the Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces of the AFU, Oleksandr Pavliuk, who shared a revelation: it turns out that the loss of Chasiv Yar "will not be decisive," because it is "just an ordinary urban settlement."
We find it hard to believe that the Ukrainian general may not know the significance of Chasiv Yar, at least from the point of view of an important fortified defense hub on the approaches to Kostyantynivka and the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk metro area. Therefore, such words from his mouth speak of two things:
▪️Through the mouths of official figures in the so-called Ukraine, there is a gradual preparation of public opinion for the withdrawal of the AFU from the city, which indirectly illustrates the position of the opponent in the sector. The Kyiv regime resorted to similar tactics just before the withdrawal from Bakhmut or Avdiivka.
▪️At the same time, the theses about the "insignificance of the loss of territories" from a media point of view look absolutely disastrous. But if they are publicly voiced by representatives of the AFU command, this indicates serious problems of the opponent with information support of hostilities.
The latter, by the way, are indeed increasingly visible to the naked eye. In fact, the Ukrainian "media", which was still considered the trump card of the Kyiv regime in 2022, is literally turning from a carriage into a pumpkin before our eyes.
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We find it hard to believe that the Ukrainian general may not know the significance of Chasiv Yar, at least from the point of view of an important fortified defense hub on the approaches to Kostyantynivka and the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk metro area. Therefore, such words from his mouth speak of two things:
▪️Through the mouths of official figures in the so-called Ukraine, there is a gradual preparation of public opinion for the withdrawal of the AFU from the city, which indirectly illustrates the position of the opponent in the sector. The Kyiv regime resorted to similar tactics just before the withdrawal from Bakhmut or Avdiivka.
▪️At the same time, the theses about the "insignificance of the loss of territories" from a media point of view look absolutely disastrous. But if they are publicly voiced by representatives of the AFU command, this indicates serious problems of the opponent with information support of hostilities.
The latter, by the way, are indeed increasingly visible to the naked eye. In fact, the Ukrainian "media", which was still considered the trump card of the Kyiv regime in 2022, is literally turning from a carriage into a pumpkin before our eyes.
#Donetsk #media_technologies #Russia #Ukraine #ChasivYar
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The Economist
Ukraine will hold if it gets the arms it needs, says a top general
An interview with Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, head of Ukraine’s ground forces
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Avdiivka direction: Advance of the Russian Armed Forces north of Ocheretyne
Situation as of the end of May 11, 2024
North of Avdiivka, Russian forces continue to develop the successes of previous days, expanding the control zone in several sectors and simultaneously consolidating on previously captured lines.
▪️After several days of attacks, Russian Armed Forces units advanced to the line of Ocheretyne - Arkhanhelsk. Also, west of Arkhanhelsk, assault groups cleared a "pocket" and approached the outskirts of Novoaleksandrivka.
▪️In addition, Russian troops occupied the Kalynova Gully and advanced towards the village of Kalynove. Notably, this was achieved with relatively small forces - the enemy is experiencing certain difficulties in deploying reinforcements to the frontline.
▪️Fighting is also ongoing in the direction of the line Sokol - Novopokrovske. Russian forces are storming enemy strongholds, advancing simultaneously from Semyonivka, Berdychi and Solovyovo.
If you have any additions to the situation, or would like us to highlight the successes of your unit, you can always write to us in the feedback bot @rybar_feedback_bot.
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Situation as of the end of May 11, 2024
North of Avdiivka, Russian forces continue to develop the successes of previous days, expanding the control zone in several sectors and simultaneously consolidating on previously captured lines.
▪️After several days of attacks, Russian Armed Forces units advanced to the line of Ocheretyne - Arkhanhelsk. Also, west of Arkhanhelsk, assault groups cleared a "pocket" and approached the outskirts of Novoaleksandrivka.
▪️In addition, Russian troops occupied the Kalynova Gully and advanced towards the village of Kalynove. Notably, this was achieved with relatively small forces - the enemy is experiencing certain difficulties in deploying reinforcements to the frontline.
▪️Fighting is also ongoing in the direction of the line Sokol - Novopokrovske. Russian forces are storming enemy strongholds, advancing simultaneously from Semyonivka, Berdychi and Solovyovo.
If you have any additions to the situation, or would like us to highlight the successes of your unit, you can always write to us in the feedback bot @rybar_feedback_bot.
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 On the strike on a residential building in Belgorod - Rybar's analysis
🔻This morning, the AFU struck Belgorod again. One of the shells hit a 10-story building on Shchors Street, as a result of which one of the entrances completely collapsed. Later, the roof also collapsed, but there were no casualties.
At the moment, 20 injured residents of the house are known, and according to some reports, the number of dead has reached seven people. Doctors from federal centers and Moscow will be sent to Belgorod to provide assistance to the wounded.
❗️Various versions are circulating on the Internet about what was used to deliver the strike. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the residential building was damaged by shrapnel from one of the Tochka-U missiles shot down in the sky.
The version of the Russian Ministry of Defense about the Tochka-U strike would seem logical, if it were not for the moment of the explosion: the explosion occurred from below, and not from above. Therefore, we insist on the version that the fire strike was carried out by aviation (any departmental analysts can check these data, simply by comparing it with the awareness of flights of the Ukrainian Air Force through the Akhtyrka region and the time of the strike).
🔻Most likely, the strike was delivered by the French-made AASM HAMMER guided air-to-surface bomb from the airspace of the Akhtyrka region of the Sumy region. Enemy aircraft were observed during the approach to the strike, as well as on the way back, apparently to the Myrhorod airfield.
At the same time, these bombs are limited in range to 70 km, so the aircraft had to approach the front line quite closely to carry out the strike, the target of which could have been the Luch CHP plant, located on the same Shchors Street, three hundred meters from the damaged house.
The strike hit the third entrance of the 10-story building No. 55A on Shchors Street from the inner side of the courtyard. The launch was carried out from the southwest side, and not from the southeast, as other resources are trying to convince everyone. And from this we can draw several conclusions.
🔻We are not accidentally insisting on the version with aviation and a strike from the direction of Akhtyrka: what happened clearly demonstrates that it is impossible to be limited to creating a buffer zone in the section from Lipetsk to Old Saltov with Volchansk. Belgorod is shelled not only from the south, but also from the west. The same can be said about Bryansk and Kursk.
It is impossible to plan the conduct of a "limited" operation in the border area and hope that this will reduce the ardor of the enemy. This does not work that way.
This tragedy once again confirms the need to create a buffer zone not along the border. Otherwise, such shelling of Russian territory with a fatal outcome for civilians will continue.
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🔻This morning, the AFU struck Belgorod again. One of the shells hit a 10-story building on Shchors Street, as a result of which one of the entrances completely collapsed. Later, the roof also collapsed, but there were no casualties.
At the moment, 20 injured residents of the house are known, and according to some reports, the number of dead has reached seven people. Doctors from federal centers and Moscow will be sent to Belgorod to provide assistance to the wounded.
❗️Various versions are circulating on the Internet about what was used to deliver the strike. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the residential building was damaged by shrapnel from one of the Tochka-U missiles shot down in the sky.
The version of the Russian Ministry of Defense about the Tochka-U strike would seem logical, if it were not for the moment of the explosion: the explosion occurred from below, and not from above. Therefore, we insist on the version that the fire strike was carried out by aviation (any departmental analysts can check these data, simply by comparing it with the awareness of flights of the Ukrainian Air Force through the Akhtyrka region and the time of the strike).
🔻Most likely, the strike was delivered by the French-made AASM HAMMER guided air-to-surface bomb from the airspace of the Akhtyrka region of the Sumy region. Enemy aircraft were observed during the approach to the strike, as well as on the way back, apparently to the Myrhorod airfield.
At the same time, these bombs are limited in range to 70 km, so the aircraft had to approach the front line quite closely to carry out the strike, the target of which could have been the Luch CHP plant, located on the same Shchors Street, three hundred meters from the damaged house.
The strike hit the third entrance of the 10-story building No. 55A on Shchors Street from the inner side of the courtyard. The launch was carried out from the southwest side, and not from the southeast, as other resources are trying to convince everyone. And from this we can draw several conclusions.
🔻We are not accidentally insisting on the version with aviation and a strike from the direction of Akhtyrka: what happened clearly demonstrates that it is impossible to be limited to creating a buffer zone in the section from Lipetsk to Old Saltov with Volchansk. Belgorod is shelled not only from the south, but also from the west. The same can be said about Bryansk and Kursk.
It is impossible to plan the conduct of a "limited" operation in the border area and hope that this will reduce the ardor of the enemy. This does not work that way.
This tragedy once again confirms the need to create a buffer zone not along the border. Otherwise, such shelling of Russian territory with a fatal outcome for civilians will continue.
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#Belgorod #Russia #Ukraine
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Slobozhansky direction: battles for Vovchansk and breaching the AFU defense
situation as of 7:00 pm on May 12, 2024
By the third day of the Russian offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv region, it became clear that the Ukrainian formations had regained their composure and are trying to build up a defense and repel the onslaught of Russian units.
▪️Near Lyptsi, fighting continues in the Lira-1 gardening association. Active fire impact with FAB bombs on UPMK, as well as strikes with field and rocket artillery, is being carried out on the settlement.
▪️From the direction of Zelene, it has not yet been possible to advance towards Neskuchne: battles are ongoing at the junction of the two settlements.
▪️On the line Izbytske - Starytsia - Buhrovatka, the Russian troops put to flight part of the Ukrainian formations: they managed to break through the defense near Starytsia and engage in combat for Buhrovatka. Judging by the footage published by Ukrainian resources, the Russian troops are freely moving through the clearing between the forests north of Starytsia and Buhrovatka, so we can conclude that they have full control over the forest areas.
▪️The offensive on Vovchansk continues from three directions: from the side of Hatiishche, Pleteniivka and Tykhy. But so far, combat operations are being conducted only on the outskirts, there is no talk of advancement and expansion of the control zone towards the high-rise buildings.
▪️The offensive of the Russian army is developing along the river arteries with the consistent severing of communications in the north of the Kharkiv region: this allows dividing the operational area in the border region into small pieces, consistently "chewing" them up.
🔻The strikes by Ukrainian formations on Belgorod, as well as the ongoing indiscriminate shelling of civilian development on Russian lands, once again confirm that the creation of a "buffer zone" is a necessary measure.
Without taking control of large agglomerations on the other side of the border, it will not be possible to reduce the number of shellings and neutralize the threat from Ukrainian formations.
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situation as of 7:00 pm on May 12, 2024
By the third day of the Russian offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv region, it became clear that the Ukrainian formations had regained their composure and are trying to build up a defense and repel the onslaught of Russian units.
▪️Near Lyptsi, fighting continues in the Lira-1 gardening association. Active fire impact with FAB bombs on UPMK, as well as strikes with field and rocket artillery, is being carried out on the settlement.
▪️From the direction of Zelene, it has not yet been possible to advance towards Neskuchne: battles are ongoing at the junction of the two settlements.
▪️On the line Izbytske - Starytsia - Buhrovatka, the Russian troops put to flight part of the Ukrainian formations: they managed to break through the defense near Starytsia and engage in combat for Buhrovatka. Judging by the footage published by Ukrainian resources, the Russian troops are freely moving through the clearing between the forests north of Starytsia and Buhrovatka, so we can conclude that they have full control over the forest areas.
▪️The offensive on Vovchansk continues from three directions: from the side of Hatiishche, Pleteniivka and Tykhy. But so far, combat operations are being conducted only on the outskirts, there is no talk of advancement and expansion of the control zone towards the high-rise buildings.
▪️The offensive of the Russian army is developing along the river arteries with the consistent severing of communications in the north of the Kharkiv region: this allows dividing the operational area in the border region into small pieces, consistently "chewing" them up.
🔻The strikes by Ukrainian formations on Belgorod, as well as the ongoing indiscriminate shelling of civilian development on Russian lands, once again confirm that the creation of a "buffer zone" is a necessary measure.
Without taking control of large agglomerations on the other side of the border, it will not be possible to reduce the number of shellings and neutralize the threat from Ukrainian formations.
High-resolution map
English version
If you have any additions to the situation, or you want us to highlight the successes of your unit, you can always write to us in the feedback bot @rybar_feedback_bot.
#Belgorod #digest #map #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkiv
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Media is too big
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Highlights of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine: highlights of the week May, 6-12, 2024
▪️Russian troops have attacked energy facilities in the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. The missiles hit Dobrotvir TPP, Ladyzhynsʹka TPP and Burshtynsʹka TPP, as well as the turbine hall of Dnipro HPP-1.
▪️Several more missiles hit the 330/110kV autotransformer in 330 kV Poltava substation. In Kremenchuk HPP, the hit fell at the head cover of the hydraulic unit No.4.
▪️Russian troops are working to identify and destroy Ukrainian aviation bases. In Dnipropetrovsk region, near Manvelivka, Russian Armed Forces hit an airfield, destroying two Mi-24 helicopters.
▪️Ukrainian units, in turn, continue to attack fuel and energy infrastructure facilities in Russia. The enemy struck tank farms in Roven'ky and Luhansk with ATACMS: four people were killed, 16 more were wounded.
▪️For the first time since the beginning of special military operation, Ukrainian drones attacked targets in the Republic of Bashkortostan, covering about 1300 km. Several drones damaged the visbreaking device on the territory of the local refinery in Salavat.
▪️The AFU also struck the Tovarkovo oil refinery in Kaluga region for the second time since March 15. As a result of the hit, four tanks with fuel oil and diesel fuel caught fire.
▪️At the same time, Ukrainian units attacked facilities in Crimea with unmanned boats. One of the marine drones hit a boat at the pier at the Vuz'ka Bay in Chornomors'ke.
▪️In special military operation zone, Russian troops continue to press Ukrainian units in several sectors of the front. In North Ukrainian direction, the enemy continues to establish positions along the border with Russia.
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▪️Russian troops have attacked energy facilities in the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. The missiles hit Dobrotvir TPP, Ladyzhynsʹka TPP and Burshtynsʹka TPP, as well as the turbine hall of Dnipro HPP-1.
▪️Several more missiles hit the 330/110kV autotransformer in 330 kV Poltava substation. In Kremenchuk HPP, the hit fell at the head cover of the hydraulic unit No.4.
▪️Russian troops are working to identify and destroy Ukrainian aviation bases. In Dnipropetrovsk region, near Manvelivka, Russian Armed Forces hit an airfield, destroying two Mi-24 helicopters.
▪️Ukrainian units, in turn, continue to attack fuel and energy infrastructure facilities in Russia. The enemy struck tank farms in Roven'ky and Luhansk with ATACMS: four people were killed, 16 more were wounded.
▪️For the first time since the beginning of special military operation, Ukrainian drones attacked targets in the Republic of Bashkortostan, covering about 1300 km. Several drones damaged the visbreaking device on the territory of the local refinery in Salavat.
▪️The AFU also struck the Tovarkovo oil refinery in Kaluga region for the second time since March 15. As a result of the hit, four tanks with fuel oil and diesel fuel caught fire.
▪️At the same time, Ukrainian units attacked facilities in Crimea with unmanned boats. One of the marine drones hit a boat at the pier at the Vuz'ka Bay in Chornomors'ke.
▪️In special military operation zone, Russian troops continue to press Ukrainian units in several sectors of the front. In North Ukrainian direction, the enemy continues to establish positions along the border with Russia.
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Chronicles of the special military operation
for May 13, 2024
Over the past day, Russian forces struck several targets in the front-line and rear areas on the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. In turn, the AFU struck the ATACMS MLRS on Krasnodoн in the LPR, and continue to strike civilian infrastructure in the border areas of Belgorod and Kursk Regions.
In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian forces are advancing in several sectors and fighting in the industrial zone of Volchansk, as well as in the multi-story buildings on the eastern outskirts of the city. In the area of Hlyboke, heavy fighting continues on the approaches to Lyptsi.
In the Bakhmut direction, Russian Armed Forces units are storming enemy positions in the Canal neighborhood in Chasiv Yar, and also striking positions in the city and its environs.
In the Avdiivka direction, there are battles in the forest belts along the railway to the west of Ocheretyne, as well as on the approaches to Novoaleksandrivka and Kalynove.
In the Kherson direction, there are ongoing clashes in the island zone north of Kozachi Lahery and in Krynky. Russian forces struck a UAV crew and several dozen drones north of Mylove on the right bank of the Dnipro.
🔻A detailed analytical report on the events in the Special Military Operation zone is available on our closed channel @rybar_plus_bot
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Situation in the special military operation zone (ru; en)
Slobozhansky direction (ru; en)
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for May 13, 2024
Over the past day, Russian forces struck several targets in the front-line and rear areas on the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. In turn, the AFU struck the ATACMS MLRS on Krasnodoн in the LPR, and continue to strike civilian infrastructure in the border areas of Belgorod and Kursk Regions.
In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian forces are advancing in several sectors and fighting in the industrial zone of Volchansk, as well as in the multi-story buildings on the eastern outskirts of the city. In the area of Hlyboke, heavy fighting continues on the approaches to Lyptsi.
In the Bakhmut direction, Russian Armed Forces units are storming enemy positions in the Canal neighborhood in Chasiv Yar, and also striking positions in the city and its environs.
In the Avdiivka direction, there are battles in the forest belts along the railway to the west of Ocheretyne, as well as on the approaches to Novoaleksandrivka and Kalynove.
In the Kherson direction, there are ongoing clashes in the island zone north of Kozachi Lahery and in Krynky. Russian forces struck a UAV crew and several dozen drones north of Mylove on the right bank of the Dnipro.
🔻A detailed analytical report on the events in the Special Military Operation zone is available on our closed channel @rybar_plus_bot
High-resolution maps:
Situation in the special military operation zone (ru; en)
Slobozhansky direction (ru; en)
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Slobozhansky direction: Russian Armed Forces control the northern part of Volchansk, fighting near Liptsy and Lukiiantsi
situation as of 4:00 pm on May 14, 2024
🔻In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops are advancing towards Liptsy through the dachas. For now, the fighting is more like a reconnaissance in force. Artillery and air strikes are being carried out on the concentrated enemy forces in the village.
▪️In the area of Lukiiantsi, Russian assault teams reached the outskirts of the village and entered the settlement. It is unclear whether the village has been completely liberated or not. On the eastern flank, the Russian Armed Forces established control over Buhrovat, while fighting continues in the neighboring Staritsa.
▪️Information is circulating on the Internet about the attacking groups linking up through Zelene, but in reality this is most likely not the case, since the gap between Lukiiantsi and Zelene is an open field, and between Zelene and Ternova-Izbytske - fields and forest.
▪️In Volchansk, the enemy was pushed out of the northern part of the city, and clearing operations are underway. According to preliminary data, the territory of Lyceum No. 1 and Kindergarten No. 6 has been taken. The status of the Volchansk Aggregate Plant, where the presence of Ukrainian formations may remain, is still unclear.
▪️By mid-day, only one heavily damaged road bridge and one pedestrian bridge remained in Volchansk, so communication with the southern part of the city is still maintained.
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situation as of 4:00 pm on May 14, 2024
🔻In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops are advancing towards Liptsy through the dachas. For now, the fighting is more like a reconnaissance in force. Artillery and air strikes are being carried out on the concentrated enemy forces in the village.
▪️In the area of Lukiiantsi, Russian assault teams reached the outskirts of the village and entered the settlement. It is unclear whether the village has been completely liberated or not. On the eastern flank, the Russian Armed Forces established control over Buhrovat, while fighting continues in the neighboring Staritsa.
▪️Information is circulating on the Internet about the attacking groups linking up through Zelene, but in reality this is most likely not the case, since the gap between Lukiiantsi and Zelene is an open field, and between Zelene and Ternova-Izbytske - fields and forest.
▪️In Volchansk, the enemy was pushed out of the northern part of the city, and clearing operations are underway. According to preliminary data, the territory of Lyceum No. 1 and Kindergarten No. 6 has been taken. The status of the Volchansk Aggregate Plant, where the presence of Ukrainian formations may remain, is still unclear.
▪️By mid-day, only one heavily damaged road bridge and one pedestrian bridge remained in Volchansk, so communication with the southern part of the city is still maintained.
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If you have any additional information about the situation, or you would like us to highlight the successes of your unit, you can always write to us in the feedback bot @rybar_feedback_bot.
#Belgorod #digest #map #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkiv
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Слобожанское направление: Контроль ВС РФ над северной частью Волчанска, бои под Липцами и Лукьянцами
обстановка по состоянию на 16.00 14 мая 2024 года
🔻На Слобожанском направлении российские войска наступают в направлении Липцев через дачи. Пока боевые…
обстановка по состоянию на 16.00 14 мая 2024 года
🔻На Слобожанском направлении российские войска наступают в направлении Липцев через дачи. Пока боевые…
Forwarded from Rybar in English
❗️🇷🇺🪖 If the special status of Alexey Dyumin, who today became an assistant to the President of Russia and will oversee the military-industrial complex (essentially becoming a kind of control figure on Putin's behalf), came as a surprise to anyone, then there's more to come.
Sergey Surovikin is in the Kremlin.
The topic of the meeting, its nature, and duration are unknown.
Perhaps he is reporting on the successes of the Russian military-industrial complex in Algeria.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
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Sergey Surovikin is in the Kremlin.
The topic of the meeting, its nature, and duration are unknown.
Perhaps he is reporting on the successes of the Russian military-industrial complex in Algeria.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
@rybar
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❗️🇷🇺🪖 Если для кого-то стал неожиданностью особый статус Алексея Дюмина, который сегодня стал помощником президента России, как и тот факт, что он будет курировать военно-промышленный комплекс (и станет, по сути, своего рода контролирующим лицом со стороны…
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇷🇺🪖 Vladimir Solovyov corrects us and says that Surovikin is at his workplace in Algeria.
Well, we don't exclude the possibility that we could have been misinformed, and at this particular moment Sergey Surovikin is in Algeria (although our sources claimed the opposite).
Time will put everything in its place. And we admit the possibility of a mistake.
However, it's an amazing thing: our single message provoked a storm of jubilation among military channels.
If military commanders in Russia were elected based on the sympathy of the personnel, we would have a completely different army fighting.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
@rybar
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Well, we don't exclude the possibility that we could have been misinformed, and at this particular moment Sergey Surovikin is in Algeria (although our sources claimed the opposite).
Time will put everything in its place. And we admit the possibility of a mistake.
However, it's an amazing thing: our single message provoked a storm of jubilation among military channels.
If military commanders in Russia were elected based on the sympathy of the personnel, we would have a completely different army fighting.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
@rybar
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СОЛОВЬЁВ
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ Коллеги, генерал армии Сергей Суровикин в настоящее время находится на своем рабочем месте в Алжирской Народной Демократической Республике
Forwarded from Rybar in English
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Missile Strike on Belbek
🔻During the night, Ukrainian forces carried out a new strike on Crimean airfields. This time, the target was Belbek, where up to 16 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles with cluster warheads were launched.
▪️The sounds of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division were heard by the population of Crimea and Sevastopol around 2 AM. Flashes and explosion sounds in the sky were even reported by residents of Chernomorske. In total, about 13 missiles were shot down on the approaches to Belbek.
▪️Unfortunately, one or two missiles could not be intercepted. And the results of the impact became known to the whole world again thanks to the publication of a video from a surveillance camera online. How and why this is still possible in the third year of the war is a rhetorical question.
❗️As we and our colleagues have noted before, until criminal liability is introduced for publishing such videos and photos, Ukrainian forces will easily assess the results of their strikes even without the help of NATO satellites.
🔻It is not entirely clear where the missile launch was carried out from. Past raids were from the Beryslav area. But the enemy usually changes positions to avoid detection. And the 300 km range of ATACMS increases the combat capabilities of the AFU.
At the same time, it is not excluded that this time the launch was carried out from the Kherson region. However, some of our sources report that the flight of the missiles was recorded from the direction of Zmiinyi. So the launchers could have been somewhere near Vylkove on the border with Romania.
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#Crimea #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
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🔻During the night, Ukrainian forces carried out a new strike on Crimean airfields. This time, the target was Belbek, where up to 16 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles with cluster warheads were launched.
▪️The sounds of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division were heard by the population of Crimea and Sevastopol around 2 AM. Flashes and explosion sounds in the sky were even reported by residents of Chernomorske. In total, about 13 missiles were shot down on the approaches to Belbek.
▪️Unfortunately, one or two missiles could not be intercepted. And the results of the impact became known to the whole world again thanks to the publication of a video from a surveillance camera online. How and why this is still possible in the third year of the war is a rhetorical question.
❗️As we and our colleagues have noted before, until criminal liability is introduced for publishing such videos and photos, Ukrainian forces will easily assess the results of their strikes even without the help of NATO satellites.
🔻It is not entirely clear where the missile launch was carried out from. Past raids were from the Beryslav area. But the enemy usually changes positions to avoid detection. And the 300 km range of ATACMS increases the combat capabilities of the AFU.
At the same time, it is not excluded that this time the launch was carried out from the Kherson region. However, some of our sources report that the flight of the missiles was recorded from the direction of Zmiinyi. So the launchers could have been somewhere near Vylkove on the border with Romania.
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#Crimea #Russia #Ukraine
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 In Crimea and Sevastopol, air defense systems have been active for the second day. After the night attack on Belbek, Ukrainian formations have apparently decided to deliver a new strike.
Air defense activity has been reported over Sevastopol and Simferopol, with several targets reportedly shot down. According to some reports, ATACMS missiles were launched from the Kherson region.
Additionally, there is a threat of the use of unmanned surface vessels against objects of the Black Sea Fleet. Two groups of drones have departed from the vicinity of Odesa, heading towards Crimea.
The reason is quite simple: today, May 15th, marks the sixth anniversary of the opening of the Crimean Bridge, so it is possible that the opponent may try to time an attack with this date.
#Crimea #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
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Air defense activity has been reported over Sevastopol and Simferopol, with several targets reportedly shot down. According to some reports, ATACMS missiles were launched from the Kherson region.
Additionally, there is a threat of the use of unmanned surface vessels against objects of the Black Sea Fleet. Two groups of drones have departed from the vicinity of Odesa, heading towards Crimea.
The reason is quite simple: today, May 15th, marks the sixth anniversary of the opening of the Crimean Bridge, so it is possible that the opponent may try to time an attack with this date.
#Crimea #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 В Крыму и Севастополе второй день не прекращается работа ПВО. После ночной атаки на Бельбек украинские формирования, видимо, решили нанести новый удар.
Над Севастополем и Симферополем отмечена работа ПВО, сообщается о нескольких сбитых целях. По некоторым…
Над Севастополем и Симферополем отмечена работа ПВО, сообщается о нескольких сбитых целях. По некоторым…
Forwarded from Rybar in English
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 About another combined strike on Crimea
🔻As we reported yesterday, Ukrainian forces carried out a new strike on the Crimean peninsula closer to midnight, using both drones and ballistic missiles.
▪️The first wave of drones was a diversion (at least, judging by the tactics): several drones from Odesa headed towards Sevastopol. At the same time, unmanned boats were launched from the southern part of the Odesa region.
▪️Around 22:50, air defense units engaged three targets near the Kruhlaya Bukhta of Sevastopol. Another object was shot down over Simferopol. At the same time, several UAVs were spotted west of Belbek: they were likely used for target designation and missile guidance, not for strikes.
▪️Approximately at the same time, the enemy launched several ATACMS missiles from the Yavkino area in the Mykolaiv region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, five missiles were shot down over the Belbek airfield. Debris damaged an object at the airfield, footage of which was again demonstrated by Ukrainian public pages.
▪️Numerous unmanned boats were also spotted near Tarkhankut and Chornomorske. One of them was destroyed north of Chornomorske - target designation was carried out by a Russian drone.
❗️However, a significant part of the unmanned boats did not reach the peninsula: most likely, they are waiting in the designated area (as has happened before). And in the coming days, we will hear about them again.
At the moment, an RQ-4B drone is on patrol in the western part of the Black Sea, which is rather an unusual area for it. It may be assessing the results of the strike on Belbek, as well as tracking new targets, for example, for the use of unmanned boats.
The tactics of the AFU are becoming increasingly clear: strikes on airfields and fuel and lubricant depots to force the aviation to redeploy to more distant bases, thereby increasing the response time to the alarm and clearing the airspace of Crimea before more massive attacks.
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#Crimea #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
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🔻As we reported yesterday, Ukrainian forces carried out a new strike on the Crimean peninsula closer to midnight, using both drones and ballistic missiles.
▪️The first wave of drones was a diversion (at least, judging by the tactics): several drones from Odesa headed towards Sevastopol. At the same time, unmanned boats were launched from the southern part of the Odesa region.
▪️Around 22:50, air defense units engaged three targets near the Kruhlaya Bukhta of Sevastopol. Another object was shot down over Simferopol. At the same time, several UAVs were spotted west of Belbek: they were likely used for target designation and missile guidance, not for strikes.
▪️Approximately at the same time, the enemy launched several ATACMS missiles from the Yavkino area in the Mykolaiv region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, five missiles were shot down over the Belbek airfield. Debris damaged an object at the airfield, footage of which was again demonstrated by Ukrainian public pages.
▪️Numerous unmanned boats were also spotted near Tarkhankut and Chornomorske. One of them was destroyed north of Chornomorske - target designation was carried out by a Russian drone.
❗️However, a significant part of the unmanned boats did not reach the peninsula: most likely, they are waiting in the designated area (as has happened before). And in the coming days, we will hear about them again.
At the moment, an RQ-4B drone is on patrol in the western part of the Black Sea, which is rather an unusual area for it. It may be assessing the results of the strike on Belbek, as well as tracking new targets, for example, for the use of unmanned boats.
The tactics of the AFU are becoming increasingly clear: strikes on airfields and fuel and lubricant depots to force the aviation to redeploy to more distant bases, thereby increasing the response time to the alarm and clearing the airspace of Crimea before more massive attacks.
High-resolution map
English version
#Crimea #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 В Крыму и Севастополе второй день не прекращается работа ПВО. После ночной атаки на Бельбек украинские формирования, видимо, решили нанести новый удар.
Над Севастополем и Симферополем отмечена работа ПВО, сообщается о нескольких сбитых целях. По некоторым…
Над Севастополем и Симферополем отмечена работа ПВО, сообщается о нескольких сбитых целях. По некоторым…
Forwarded from Rybar in English
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 On the "halt" of the Russian offensive on Kharkiv: what's the nuance?
First, Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces managed to stop the advance of the Russian army in the Slobozhansky direction. At the same time, the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU Syrskyi claims that there is a risk of encirclement of the Kharkiv group of the AFU by Russian troops.
And they are both right, but there is, as usual, a nuance.
▪️More than 30 AFU battalions have been redeployed to the sector (for comparison: Chasiv Yar is held by half the forces). Given that the Russian Armed Forces have taken only the first line of defense and the gray zone, the enemy has now redeployed significant forces to the pre-prepared positions. They need to be dislodged and put out of action.
▪️The number of footage of destroyed and burned-out AFU equipment ("Lancets", KABs, FABs on JDAM) is overwhelming: "Lancets" are flying at individual vehicles and mortar crews, FPV drones are operating. We don't remember a section of the front where, during the offensive of the Russian army, so many video frames of fire damage were released. And this is only what has made it to the Internet.
▪️Despite the 30+ enemy battalions in this sector of the front, the Russian Armed Forces are still moving forward: the Lira-1 dacha community has been passed and the assault on Liptsy has begun, the area of control has been expanded near Lukiiantsi, the northern Vovchansk is being cleared and the area of control is expanding to the east of it. This indicates that flooding the front with manpower at the current stage is an approach that does not allow the AFU to stabilize the front.
▪️Air defense assets have been concentrated around Kharkiv: near Chuhuiv, the entire range from "Patriots" to IRIS and SAMP-T is recorded. This has forced the AFU to leave areas in the rear unprotected, which have now become much more vulnerable to Russian ballistics, cruise missiles and drones.
▪️The encirclement of the AFU grouping is indeed possible: if the Russian Armed Forces launch an offensive in the Sumy region and at the junction with the Kharkiv region (or, conversely, to the east of Vovchansk), this scenario is potentially possible. The AFU is betting too heavily on holding the first line of defense.
📌 Overall, the current status of the operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the Slobozhansky direction demonstrates the main thing: people must be accompanied by resourcefulness, skill, competent planning, and the ability to work as part of a reconnaissance-strike loop.
Otherwise, of course, you can flood the front with "meat", but this will give a completely different result: the Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 will not lie.
#Russia #Ukraine #Kharkiv
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First, Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces managed to stop the advance of the Russian army in the Slobozhansky direction. At the same time, the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU Syrskyi claims that there is a risk of encirclement of the Kharkiv group of the AFU by Russian troops.
And they are both right, but there is, as usual, a nuance.
▪️More than 30 AFU battalions have been redeployed to the sector (for comparison: Chasiv Yar is held by half the forces). Given that the Russian Armed Forces have taken only the first line of defense and the gray zone, the enemy has now redeployed significant forces to the pre-prepared positions. They need to be dislodged and put out of action.
▪️The number of footage of destroyed and burned-out AFU equipment ("Lancets", KABs, FABs on JDAM) is overwhelming: "Lancets" are flying at individual vehicles and mortar crews, FPV drones are operating. We don't remember a section of the front where, during the offensive of the Russian army, so many video frames of fire damage were released. And this is only what has made it to the Internet.
▪️Despite the 30+ enemy battalions in this sector of the front, the Russian Armed Forces are still moving forward: the Lira-1 dacha community has been passed and the assault on Liptsy has begun, the area of control has been expanded near Lukiiantsi, the northern Vovchansk is being cleared and the area of control is expanding to the east of it. This indicates that flooding the front with manpower at the current stage is an approach that does not allow the AFU to stabilize the front.
▪️Air defense assets have been concentrated around Kharkiv: near Chuhuiv, the entire range from "Patriots" to IRIS and SAMP-T is recorded. This has forced the AFU to leave areas in the rear unprotected, which have now become much more vulnerable to Russian ballistics, cruise missiles and drones.
▪️The encirclement of the AFU grouping is indeed possible: if the Russian Armed Forces launch an offensive in the Sumy region and at the junction with the Kharkiv region (or, conversely, to the east of Vovchansk), this scenario is potentially possible. The AFU is betting too heavily on holding the first line of defense.
📌 Overall, the current status of the operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the Slobozhansky direction demonstrates the main thing: people must be accompanied by resourcefulness, skill, competent planning, and the ability to work as part of a reconnaissance-strike loop.
Otherwise, of course, you can flood the front with "meat", but this will give a completely different result: the Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 will not lie.
#Russia #Ukraine #Kharkiv
@rybar
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Об «остановке» российского наступления на Харьков: в чем нюанс?
Сперва Зеленский заявил, что украинские формирования сумели остановить продвижение российской армии на Слобожанском направлении. Одновременно главком ВСУ Сырский утверждает, что существует…
Сперва Зеленский заявил, что украинские формирования сумели остановить продвижение российской армии на Слобожанском направлении. Одновременно главком ВСУ Сырский утверждает, что существует…
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Over time, additional details are emerging about the visit of a special Ukrainian delegation to the United States, the purpose of which is to obtain permission to use American missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory.
As reported by American media, Kyiv is complaining that Russia has redeployed its command centers, directly responsible for organizing the offensive in the Kharkiv region, beyond the range of HIMARS. In this regard, the main argument of the Ukrainian leadership is the lack of alternatives to American missiles - drones do not have the same mobility and cannot effectively strike Russian headquarters.
Kyiv also insists that if Washington allowed the use of Stinger MANPADS and, in the future, F-16s to strike Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft on Russian territory, this would completely turn the tide and change the situation in the northern direction.
📌 It cannot be said that no one in the American establishment or the analytical community supports this idea.
Republican hawks in Congress, including members of the Senate Armed Services Committee Rick Scott and Mike Rounds, have spoken out in favor of allowing the so-called Ukraine to strike Russian territory.
They propose allowing Kyiv to strike only military targets. Notably, the main argument of the proponents of escalation is "we have already raised the stakes, but Russia has not reacted".
🔻 Time has shown that the discussion of strikes deep into Russian territory became possible only due to the lack of a tough reaction from Moscow to previous rounds of escalation.
At the same time, in the administration of President Joe Biden and the Pentagon, the new proposals from Ukraine are still viewed with caution - apparently, Vladimir Putin's decision to conduct exercises on the use of tactical nuclear weapons has had an effect.
#Russia #USA #Ukraine
@rybar together with @usaperiodical
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As reported by American media, Kyiv is complaining that Russia has redeployed its command centers, directly responsible for organizing the offensive in the Kharkiv region, beyond the range of HIMARS. In this regard, the main argument of the Ukrainian leadership is the lack of alternatives to American missiles - drones do not have the same mobility and cannot effectively strike Russian headquarters.
Kyiv also insists that if Washington allowed the use of Stinger MANPADS and, in the future, F-16s to strike Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft on Russian territory, this would completely turn the tide and change the situation in the northern direction.
📌 It cannot be said that no one in the American establishment or the analytical community supports this idea.
Republican hawks in Congress, including members of the Senate Armed Services Committee Rick Scott and Mike Rounds, have spoken out in favor of allowing the so-called Ukraine to strike Russian territory.
They propose allowing Kyiv to strike only military targets. Notably, the main argument of the proponents of escalation is "we have already raised the stakes, but Russia has not reacted".
🔻 Time has shown that the discussion of strikes deep into Russian territory became possible only due to the lack of a tough reaction from Moscow to previous rounds of escalation.
At the same time, in the administration of President Joe Biden and the Pentagon, the new proposals from Ukraine are still viewed with caution - apparently, Vladimir Putin's decision to conduct exercises on the use of tactical nuclear weapons has had an effect.
#Russia #USA #Ukraine
@rybar together with @usaperiodical
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Американскiй номеръ
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Соединенные Штаты и Украина должны концентрировать внимание на «ближнем бое», а не на ударах в глубине территории России — министр обороны США Ллойд Остин.
Мы никогда не использовали западные вооружения для нападения на Россию, не били по их территории…
Мы никогда не использовали западные вооружения для нападения на Россию, не били по их территории…
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇷🇺🇺🇸🛰️ Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder stated that on May 16, a spacecraft was launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, which most likely represents an anti-satellite weapon. It is now in orbit, where the American reconnaissance satellite USA-314 is located.
As reported by Reuters, this is a new Russian so-called "inspector satellite". According to open sources, their tasks include observing other spacecraft with the ability to make direct contact with them. However, the functionality of such devices may be even greater.
📌 By the way, this is far from the first domestic inspector satellite: according to data from specialized Western resources, since 2013 Russia has launched at least four such spacecraft into orbit, one of which (Cosmos-2542) carried another small device. They also carried out observation of elements of the US space grouping.
Against the backdrop of the militarization of space and especially the recent successes of the United States in this area, the development of countermeasures is becoming particularly relevant. The very fact of work in this direction indicates that certain Russian circles take the threat seriously. Which is pleasing to see.
#space #Russia #USA
@rybar
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As reported by Reuters, this is a new Russian so-called "inspector satellite". According to open sources, their tasks include observing other spacecraft with the ability to make direct contact with them. However, the functionality of such devices may be even greater.
📌 By the way, this is far from the first domestic inspector satellite: according to data from specialized Western resources, since 2013 Russia has launched at least four such spacecraft into orbit, one of which (Cosmos-2542) carried another small device. They also carried out observation of elements of the US space grouping.
Against the backdrop of the militarization of space and especially the recent successes of the United States in this area, the development of countermeasures is becoming particularly relevant. The very fact of work in this direction indicates that certain Russian circles take the threat seriously. Which is pleasing to see.
#space #Russia #USA
@rybar
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Reuters
US assesses Russia launched space weapon in path of American satellite
Russia last week launched a satellite that U.S. intelligence officials believe to be a weapon capable of inspecting and attacking other satellites, the U.S. Space Command said on Tuesday as the Russian spacecraft trails a U.S. spy satellite in orbit.
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇷🇺🇺🇦 What is happening near Kharkiv and why are Russian forces not advancing further?
On May 17, we already analyzed the harm of overly patriotic statements about "Kharkiv is ours" and explained what is driving the current delay in the advance of the Russian Armed Forces. A week later, the situation has not changed.
▪️The main focus in the Slobozhansky direction is directed at Volchansk: Russian troops are conducting assault operations in high-rise buildings in the area bounded by Korolenko - Soborna - Kolokolvtseva - Olesya Dosvitnoho streets. The enemy is transferring more and more forces into this meat grinder, which are being targeted by Russian artillery, tank troops, aviation and UAV operators.
▪️The advance near Lyptsi is complicated by the fact that Lyptsi, Borshchova, Ruski and Cherkasski Tishki (northern approaches to Kharkiv) are located in a lowland. To the southeast of Lyptsi, there is height 204.7 - a hill that overlooks the northern border and the suburbs of Kharkiv. A fairly powerful AFU fortified area has been equipped there, without capturing which it will not be possible to advance further. So now the Russian troops are trying to dislodge the enemy from the occupied lines.
▪️At the moment, Ukrainian formations have pulled up over 50 battalions to the Kharkiv area: they are being withdrawn from all directions, leaving the fronts exposed, and strategic reserves are being brought in, which has not been the case before. The work of the Russian army as part of the reconnaissance-strike contour is amazingly well-organized: we see a significant amount of destroyed AFU forces and assets on a daily basis. But the enemy forces here are really numerous.
▪️This allowed the front to be pushed forward in many other areas: Russian troops pushed out the enemy from Kleshcheyevka and Andreyevka, managed to advance to the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, cleared Umansky, occupied the eastern outskirts of Krasnogorovka, returned to Staromayorskoye and Urozhayne. All this happened after the start of the offensive in the Slobozhansky direction: the defense lines of the Ukrainian formations were breached.
📌Moreover, we will probably reveal a terrible secret that is uncomfortable to admit in the overly patriotic segment. Russian troops have entrenched themselves on the achieved lines and partially switched to defense: their task is not to destroy people in assault operations, but to deprive the enemy of the initiative and destroy the reserves pulled up to Kharkiv.
By the end of May, the AFU must launch a counteroffensive north of Kharkiv: this is almost their last chance to try to push the Russian troops out of this area and report a "brilliant victory".
The results of repelling the offensive, the amount of forces and assets that will remain with the Russian Armed Forces after the AFU counteroffensive, will determine how the plans of the Russian Armed Forces for further advancement will be adjusted.
#Russia # Original msg
On May 17, we already analyzed the harm of overly patriotic statements about "Kharkiv is ours" and explained what is driving the current delay in the advance of the Russian Armed Forces. A week later, the situation has not changed.
▪️The main focus in the Slobozhansky direction is directed at Volchansk: Russian troops are conducting assault operations in high-rise buildings in the area bounded by Korolenko - Soborna - Kolokolvtseva - Olesya Dosvitnoho streets. The enemy is transferring more and more forces into this meat grinder, which are being targeted by Russian artillery, tank troops, aviation and UAV operators.
▪️The advance near Lyptsi is complicated by the fact that Lyptsi, Borshchova, Ruski and Cherkasski Tishki (northern approaches to Kharkiv) are located in a lowland. To the southeast of Lyptsi, there is height 204.7 - a hill that overlooks the northern border and the suburbs of Kharkiv. A fairly powerful AFU fortified area has been equipped there, without capturing which it will not be possible to advance further. So now the Russian troops are trying to dislodge the enemy from the occupied lines.
▪️At the moment, Ukrainian formations have pulled up over 50 battalions to the Kharkiv area: they are being withdrawn from all directions, leaving the fronts exposed, and strategic reserves are being brought in, which has not been the case before. The work of the Russian army as part of the reconnaissance-strike contour is amazingly well-organized: we see a significant amount of destroyed AFU forces and assets on a daily basis. But the enemy forces here are really numerous.
▪️This allowed the front to be pushed forward in many other areas: Russian troops pushed out the enemy from Kleshcheyevka and Andreyevka, managed to advance to the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, cleared Umansky, occupied the eastern outskirts of Krasnogorovka, returned to Staromayorskoye and Urozhayne. All this happened after the start of the offensive in the Slobozhansky direction: the defense lines of the Ukrainian formations were breached.
📌Moreover, we will probably reveal a terrible secret that is uncomfortable to admit in the overly patriotic segment. Russian troops have entrenched themselves on the achieved lines and partially switched to defense: their task is not to destroy people in assault operations, but to deprive the enemy of the initiative and destroy the reserves pulled up to Kharkiv.
By the end of May, the AFU must launch a counteroffensive north of Kharkiv: this is almost their last chance to try to push the Russian troops out of this area and report a "brilliant victory".
The results of repelling the offensive, the amount of forces and assets that will remain with the Russian Armed Forces after the AFU counteroffensive, will determine how the plans of the Russian Armed Forces for further advancement will be adjusted.
#Russia # Original msg
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Об «остановке» российского наступления на Харьков: в чем нюанс?
Сперва Зеленский заявил, что украинские формирования сумели остановить продвижение российской армии на Слобожанском направлении. Одновременно главком ВСУ Сырский утверждает, что существует…
Сперва Зеленский заявил, что украинские формирования сумели остановить продвижение российской армии на Слобожанском направлении. Одновременно главком ВСУ Сырский утверждает, что существует…
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇷🇺🇺🇦☢ On the Prospects of a Ukrainian Attack on Russia's Nuclear Infrastructure
Let's join the discussion that has unfolded online regarding a possible Ukrainian attack on the radar station that is part of the missile attack warning system near Armavir.
🔻If the attack attempt is confirmed, then we are faced with a very obvious question: what will be the response to this provocative step, the purpose of which is to test the reaction of the Russian leadership.
▪️In any other situation, it would be logical to deliver a massive strike on the place from which the launch was carried out, as well as the production of these drones. However, in the so-called Ukraine, assembly is taking place at several points (including underground), and the launch is carried out from different regions.
In this case, such a response can hardly be called proportionate, which brings us closer to more serious measures leading to total escalation in the form of limited use of weapons of mass destruction, such as tactical nuclear (TNW).
❗️At the same time, it is not necessary to deliver a strike. It would be enough to conduct a practical exercise of the strategic nuclear forces (SNF) with a demonstration of a TNW attack on some training ground near the so-called Ukraine.
As a rule, the training of these forces generally implies this, but in the past exercises we did not see this. And most likely, the rehearsal of the actions of the nuclear component without the actual use of special ammunition did not have the proper impact.
▪️Another response option can be called an asymmetric strike. It is not always necessary to respond similarly to the enemy. You can strike at some sector of industry or the economy to have an even greater impact on the enemy in the medium term.
But here, as in the case with other options, there are some nuances. The Ukrainian economy has long ceased to be something holistic, and it is artificially supported by monetary tranches from outside.
The same can be said about the industry, which is focused only on the military sector, and again only thanks to subsidies from the West, which will sooner or later run out. It is not difficult to guess what will happen to the economic and industrial sector of the country when the supplies end.
🔻The situation itself is not simple. Essentially, a strike has been carried out that automatically falls under the provisions of Russia's military doctrine, which puts the leadership in a position where a response is obligatory.
Inaction will put the state in an even more dangerous position, where attacks will become more frequent, and in the future, ATACMS or Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles may be used. Not to mention the domestic audience, which is already asking a lot of questions.
And the difficulty is that the reaction must be tough. Red-white lines or protest notes will not bring anything good, but will only create a new reason for discussion and, in fact, this will become an Overton window, in which attacks on nuclear infrastructure will become as commonplace as raids on Tatarstan.
The enemy in the face of the West, with the hands of the AFU, has made its move. Now the ball is in our court, and the opponents are waiting to see what we will come up with. And the further steps of the West on Russian territories depend on this.
#Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
Support us Original msg
Let's join the discussion that has unfolded online regarding a possible Ukrainian attack on the radar station that is part of the missile attack warning system near Armavir.
🔻If the attack attempt is confirmed, then we are faced with a very obvious question: what will be the response to this provocative step, the purpose of which is to test the reaction of the Russian leadership.
▪️In any other situation, it would be logical to deliver a massive strike on the place from which the launch was carried out, as well as the production of these drones. However, in the so-called Ukraine, assembly is taking place at several points (including underground), and the launch is carried out from different regions.
In this case, such a response can hardly be called proportionate, which brings us closer to more serious measures leading to total escalation in the form of limited use of weapons of mass destruction, such as tactical nuclear (TNW).
❗️At the same time, it is not necessary to deliver a strike. It would be enough to conduct a practical exercise of the strategic nuclear forces (SNF) with a demonstration of a TNW attack on some training ground near the so-called Ukraine.
As a rule, the training of these forces generally implies this, but in the past exercises we did not see this. And most likely, the rehearsal of the actions of the nuclear component without the actual use of special ammunition did not have the proper impact.
▪️Another response option can be called an asymmetric strike. It is not always necessary to respond similarly to the enemy. You can strike at some sector of industry or the economy to have an even greater impact on the enemy in the medium term.
But here, as in the case with other options, there are some nuances. The Ukrainian economy has long ceased to be something holistic, and it is artificially supported by monetary tranches from outside.
The same can be said about the industry, which is focused only on the military sector, and again only thanks to subsidies from the West, which will sooner or later run out. It is not difficult to guess what will happen to the economic and industrial sector of the country when the supplies end.
🔻The situation itself is not simple. Essentially, a strike has been carried out that automatically falls under the provisions of Russia's military doctrine, which puts the leadership in a position where a response is obligatory.
Inaction will put the state in an even more dangerous position, where attacks will become more frequent, and in the future, ATACMS or Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles may be used. Not to mention the domestic audience, which is already asking a lot of questions.
And the difficulty is that the reaction must be tough. Red-white lines or protest notes will not bring anything good, but will only create a new reason for discussion and, in fact, this will become an Overton window, in which attacks on nuclear infrastructure will become as commonplace as raids on Tatarstan.
The enemy in the face of the West, with the hands of the AFU, has made its move. Now the ball is in our court, and the opponents are waiting to see what we will come up with. And the further steps of the West on Russian territories depend on this.
#Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
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Ватфор | Автострадный think tank
По поводу возможной украинской атаки на РЛС СПРН под Армавиром.
Во-первых, если не фейк, то это очевидный ответ на наши ядерные учения. Такая атака безусловно попадает под нашу ядерную доктрину, и если никак не отреагировать, то получится, что доктрина…
Во-первых, если не фейк, то это очевидный ответ на наши ядерные учения. Такая атака безусловно попадает под нашу ядерную доктрину, и если никак не отреагировать, то получится, что доктрина…
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇬🇪🇷🇺 Regarding the alleged pro-Russian position of the Georgian government led by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze: on Georgia's Independence Day, he stated that by 2030 the country expects to regain Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as join the EU.
As they say, "dreaming is not harmful." All these statements are just for public consumption, having nothing to do with the real situation. To implement such a plan, they would need to commit genocide against Abkhazians, Ossetians, and Russians as well, which no one will allow them to do.
Of course, the Georgian authorities are far from the Napoleonic plans of the Ukrainian leadership. They still believe they can return to the 1991 borders. At least they have stopped talking about a dash to Moscow.
In general, what Kobakhidze said does not oblige him to anything. He played to the sentiments, showed his anti-Russian position - that's it. By 2030, his party may lose power again, and the European Union itself may well collapse given the policies being pursued.
#Georgia #Russia
@rybar
Support us Original msg
As they say, "dreaming is not harmful." All these statements are just for public consumption, having nothing to do with the real situation. To implement such a plan, they would need to commit genocide against Abkhazians, Ossetians, and Russians as well, which no one will allow them to do.
Of course, the Georgian authorities are far from the Napoleonic plans of the Ukrainian leadership. They still believe they can return to the 1991 borders. At least they have stopped talking about a dash to Moscow.
In general, what Kobakhidze said does not oblige him to anything. He played to the sentiments, showed his anti-Russian position - that's it. By 2030, his party may lose power again, and the European Union itself may well collapse given the policies being pursued.
#Georgia #Russia
@rybar
Support us Original msg
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🇬🇪🇷🇺 К слову о якобы пророссийской позиции грузинского правительства во главе с премьер-министром Ираклием Кобахидзе: в день независимости Грузии он заявил, что к 2030 году страна рассчитывает вернуть Абхазию и Южную Осетию, а также вступить в ЕС.
Как говорится:…
Как говорится:…