Graphic courtesy of @shifty_coffee.

🐣 🇫🇷 ♀️ Emerging U trend in French fertility among native born French citizens with four native French grandparents.

📎 Lyman Stone

🐣 🇫🇷 ⚪️ Even factoring in the differences between native vs. immigrant fertility, most of the fertility increase in France was in rural areas, especially in the South and West, that are populated by native French. The biggest decline in France’s fertility was in the immigrant heavy suburbs of Paris.

https://robertstark.substack.com/p/new-us-birth-data-vindicates-breeder

To have a possible TFR of just 2.27 and so many excess deaths is a disaster for Syria. Same for Libya with a TFR of 1.90. Both these countries future seems to have been stripped away by war and a terrible demographic downturn (including high emigration due to the wars).

Bad news for Hungarian births. 2024 off to a terrible start with an almost 10% fall in births during the January-March 2024 reporting period compared to the same time last year. TFR may fall below 1.4 this year (a decade low).

The pro-natalist center of Eastern Europe takes a heavy blow.

✝️ 🇺🇸 🐣 “The 17 states with the highest general fertility rates are all designated by Cook Political Report as Republican, or GOP-leaning, including such Republican strongholds as North Dakota, Nebraska, Louisiana, Utah, and Texas.”

🔶️ “By contrast, the bottom six states—and nine of the ten states with the lowest fertility rates—are all either Democratic or Democratic-leaning.”

🔶️ “Others near the bottom include Rhode Island, Oregon, Massachusetts, Washington, and California. Only two Democratic states have birthrates above the national average, compared with 20 Republican states with above-average fertility.”

https://www.city-journal.org/article/baby-blues

Still stunned that births in Czechia fell by more than 11% last year to just 91,149. That’s the first time births were below 100,000 annually in almost two decades. TFR fell from one of Europe’s highest levels (1.83) in 2021 to sub 1.5 in 2023.

Extended Scandinavia is having a tough demographic time. TFR in the core nations of Norway, Denmark, & Sweden have all fallen to~1.5 or below. In Finland TFR is at lowest low below 1.3. In Iceland (previously with one of the highest fertility rates in Europe) TFR has fallen to sub 1.6.

Transnistria is melting away. The small breakaway Republic is now seeing only ~2,500 births a year. It’s population has fallen to well under half a million. With its current rate of population decline it will have only ~350,000 people by 2060. It had more than 660K in 1998.

There is a huge problem with the political polarization of fertility in the United States+other western countries. TFR has plummeted so far recently in Poland, the UK, Spain & many other countries due at least in part to a cultural & political disconnect.

Pro natalism is seen by many young people as unappealing & anathema to their political beliefs. They must be won over to the natalist cause if there are to be substantial future generations. Otherwise expect more countries to fall to Polish or Spanish fertility rate levels.

Biden accused Japan,China,& Russia of Xenophobia due to their lack of mass immigration. He also stated that a lack of immigration “hurts them economically”. His statements downplay the very real social risks leaders in those countries face from mass migration with very low TFR.

https://t.co/E6jBIPMoit

50%+of US counties lost population between 2010 & 2020. This decline looks set to continue for awhile as people consolidate in counties with jobs,entertainment,& decent schools. Growth will be in the arid Southwest while much of the fall will be in the South, East, & Midwest.

While Brazilian births for 2023 are likely to be adjusted upwards by~170,000 the country may still have seen the lowest number of births since the early 1950s. Final births could come in at just below 2.6M. This is likely due to plummeting mixed race & black Brazilian TFR.

As you can see only about half of December’s births have been recorded and around 50-70,000 more from other months in the last quarter of the year will probably trickle in during the coming months as well.

In Taiwan next year only~200K. people will be entering the labor force while 400K minimum will be taking a pension. In South Korea next year 450K maximum will enter the labor force while~900K will be taking their pension. Economic engines of Asian Tiger Economy sputtering out.

The capital of Mozambique is already at replacement level TFR. This is happening to all of sub Saharan Africa. The continent will be at or below replacement by 2060.

South Korea’s workforce is projected to shrink by almost 10 million by 2044. It will fall from 36.57M in 2023 to just 27.17M in 2044. South Korea will no longer be an economic powerhouse but their offshoring will provide opportunities for many.

https://t.co/1XFCPDvYmO

As the already highly taxed countries of Finland, Austria, Spain,Germany,Italy,& Portugal become extremely aged societies there’s no good way for them to deal with⬆️pension costs. Voters will punish them for cutting benefits/raising retirement age but little room to raise taxes.

Finland has lowest low TFR as does Spain+Italy. UK just plunged below 1.5. Sweden has also just joined that club. In fact that is where most of the EU (bar France) currently sits. It is in the Europe’s existential interest to increase birth rates & they must try everything.

🇺🇸👶 This is a disastrous population revision for the US but one that simply reflects the reality of trends showing plummeting TFR. A United States of sub 375M is in for a rough road ahead, especially considering the consumer spending driven nature of our economy. A Yeltsinesque turn.

👶🇲🇴Macao is the true trailblazer on how low TFR can go in an entire territory or country. The Special Administrative Region hit sub 0.60 TFR last year & births are down another 13% in the 1st quarter of 2024. Just 856 births. TFR may move below 0.55 even as Dragon births kick in.

It’s not unlikely that births in the United States in 2024 could come in at ~3,635,000 or less based on first quarter numbers. This would leave TFR at just 1.6 as this is an extremely small increase when considering the likely massive levels of undocumented immigration.

There were also 1.1% more days in Q1 2024 than Q1 2023 so the picture is worse and we could potentially see another year of sub 3.6 million births and a TFR below 1.6 if this trend continues or accelerates throughout the year.

Much of Eastern Europe is home to massive “depopulation deadzones”. These are mostly rural areas or smaller & medium sized towns & cities. Urban areas mostly continue to grow. Denser urban areas decrease TFR even more if done incorrectly. What happens next is almost foretold.

Most of the growth on this map is due to mass immigration & some internal migration. Very little of the growth is due to decent demographics or fertility rates. Even France has already been below replacement for four decades.