🇺🇦 Mobilization in Ukraine

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡Cache of Ukrainian saboteurs with foreign weapons found in LPR

Russian security forces have found in the cache Swedish-British and Polish-made grenade launchers, mines and fuses for them, foreign-made cartridges of various calibers, said retired LPR Lieutenant Colonel Andrey Marochko. Weapons, which are not subject to seizure, were destroyed on the spot.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡Russian troops entered Ugledar and entrenched themselves on the outskirts of the city - DPR authorities

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡Air alert declared in the central and eastern regions of Ukraine

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡The authorities of several Ukrainian regions at once report an imminent missile attack by the Russian Armed Forces on targets in the country.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡ Explosion in Nikolaev

⚡️🇺🇦🇷🇺 The Looming Battle for Chasov Yar

Ukrainian authorities fear that this small town, or at the very least the road that runs just south of it, is next on the Kremlin’s target list. The expected push would be be an attempt to cut off and eventually surround Bakhmut.

The Ukrainian military is cautious about giving away tactical information and especially casualty figures but the picture one soldier, Roman, painted of combat around Bakhmut was brutal:

“Every day between seven and 15 of my battalion were injured or killed,” he said. “The Russians had a railway car full of artillery ammunition. We just dug into our positions and they hit us with every calibre you can imagine. We had only 20 mortar shells for the whole battalion.”

🇷🇺⛽️ Russia's Sakhalin 2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project could generate twice the revenue this year that it did before the Ukraine conflict thanks to long-term deals with Asian buyers and higher prices, according to analysts and Reuters calculations.

State-run top shareholder Gazprom stands to benefit from the boost which comes as Russia ramps up its military spending almost a year after sending troops into neighbouring Ukraine.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡Several rockets were fired in the direction of Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 “When Bakhmut falls, the frontline will soon move to the ridge running through Chasiv Yar (blue). That will give the Russians high ground over the Slovyansk-Konstantinovka line, the last line of defense in the Donbass.”

- NotDave

This line is just a really long urban area, just trying to breach it from the east via "human wave tactics" will be impossible.

So I think the Russians will try to do two huge pincers on both ends - on Slovyansk and Konstantinovka, and simultaneously pressure them from the east.

But in order to do that, they'll have to:

1) defeat the AFU grouping at Toretsk/Niu York
2) reconquer Lyman.

So I think the next big Wagner target is the first one. And by that, I don't think it'll happen soon, just that it'll be major. And here's how they'll do it.

The Wagnerites conquered Soledar by first conquering two hilltops above it, and then while simultaneously pushing in the urban area, encircling the AFU forces.

If you look at Niu York, it has a similar geography.

Since the eastern side of Niu York is heavily entrenched, as that was the border since 2015, Russians aren't likely to push there, as they've attempted so a few times.
AFU has likely heavily entrenched the southern side too.

“That tells me the Russians will try to attack Niu York from two nearby hilltops - from the east and from Zalizne. After that grouping falls, Konstantinovka is an easy target.”

“About the capture of Lyman - if the Russians try to move north from Soledar, to Siversk, the Ukrainian DRGs in the Serebryanske forestry will have no other choice but to retreat beyond the Zerebets.

After that, the Russians have to try and storm Lyman from Zarichne and Torske.”

Personally, looking at the road network I believe Yampol will suffice to encircle or compel the retreat of the Siversk grouping of the AFU.

(End)

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡A series of explosions in Vinnitsa

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡Explosions in Odessa