#YURI Despite the unprecedent, record losses (the heaviest in 8 years of war in a single day on a single section of any front), the Ukrainian offensive in the South, is not yet over. Forest stripes swarm with tanks and self-propelled artillery, and it is possible that the Ukrainian army will attempt another strike. Near Donetsk, a significant success achieved - the second line of defense of the enemy have been breached near Pervomayskoye.

#YURI The second wave of Ukrainian offense on Kherson ends in a predictable disaster, 2000 or more KIA, and between 5 and 6 thousands wounded. The hospitals in all the nearby large cities nearby are full. Yet, Ukrainians cling to the bridgehead near Davydov Brod, that can indicate their intent to try for the third time.

Russian intelligence uncovered the plan of Ukrainian spec op on Zaporozhye nuclear plant to capture it shortly before the IAEA mission would arrive. Some 300 elite Ukrainian elite special forces operatives lured into a trap and destroyed.

Donbass: battles continue near Pervomayskoye, no definitive breach of the 2nd line of defence yet achieved. The Kodema problem persists.

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#YURI WEEKLY REPORT Kherson front - at the cost of enormous losses (around 3000 KIA and up to 8000 wounded so far) the enemy achieves some insignificant, not even definitive, gains, as armies keep contesting the settlements in fierce battles. After the fourth attack of the AFU today the Allied forces pulled back from the center of Vysokopolye, but clashes continue at the outskirt of town. Analysis of the situation development during the week.

“Elegantly and nicely planned” Ukrainian operation on the Zaporozhye NPP thwarted, causing loss of the some 300 elite special forces operatives, as the implementation was much less elegant and nicely carried out. Ideas and intention behind this failure.

Apparent intentions of Ukrainian command to stage another counter offensive in Kharkov oblast, most probably towards Balakleya and Izyum, probably next week.

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#YURI DAILY: Long-expected Ukrainian offensive near Kharkov with an objective to thwart the entire Russian plan for the autumn, the last chance for Zelenski to show some success. So far, Ukrainian troops reached the Verbovka village next to Balakleya, and stalled, the Allies move reserves for a counterattack. At the same time Russian offensive towards Stari Saltov in Kharkov region.

Intriguiing Allied gains near Novopol, potentially menacing the entire enemy front between Donetsk and Velikaya Novoselka. Kodema finally and fully taken by the Wagner men, Mayorskoye under assault, with intention to reach the flanks and rear of Bakhmut group and commence Slaviansk-Kramatorsk operation. Two attacks at Kherson front by the Ukrainian side, repelled.

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#YURI DAILY Alea Jacta Est. The Ukrainians threw it all to the line, and commenced the main battle of the autumn. The situation in Kharkov region is serious and menacing, and may, if not remedied quickly, result in the worst defeat of the Allied forces since the start of the hostilities. However, despite it being the most serious operational crisis since the start of the war, the situation is far from certain, and the battle is not over - the Ukrainian gamble is extremely dangerous, and their current success can easily turn into an utter defeat. Yuri explain the Ukrainian strategy, the dangers posed to the Allied groups near Izyum. The Russians, on the other hand, do not seem rushing the forces from elsewhere in Ukraine, and continue, quite successfully, to advance near Solidar and Bakhmut. State of the fronts as of 19:00 CEST Sep. 8

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#YURI A strategic missile strike on a dam near Krivoy Rog destroys the pontoon crossings of the AFU near Davidov Brod, cutting off the Ukrainian forces on the bridgehead. Right now, the cut-off troops are being destroyed by the airforce and artillery. Thus, the Russians have a chance of annulling the Ukrainian gains in Kherson region achieved in last month.

In Zaporozhye region, Ukrainians attempt a recon by combat, indicating a high probability of the impending offensive. Generally, the day have been relatively calm. State of the fronts as of 19:00 CEST 14/09

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#YURI The remaining Ukrainian troops on the Andreevka bridgehead, cut off by the risen Ingulets river is methodically destroyed by the Russian artillery and heavy flamethrower systems. Another attack on Kherson direction was let some kilometres deep into the defense lines, surrounded and destroyed. The calm on Zaporozhye direction continues, Yuri supposes that the Ukrainian command, knowing that an offensive there won't be an easy walk, don't dare to attack, despite being taunted to try that by Putin himself.

There are unconfirmed reports though that the Russian defense line on Oskol river might have been breached, but so far no reliable confirmation of that exists, the situation is expected become clear tomorrow. If confirmed, it is quite serious, Yuri says.

Monotonous and routine work of dismantling of enemy defenses continues near Donetsk. State of the fronts as of Sep, 16, 19:00 CEST
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#YURI The window of opportunity for a threatening attack in Zaporozhye is closed for the AFU, as the defence line is manned by the first-class Russian units with enought reserves, which unfortunately was not the case in Balakleya/Izyum. Increased UAV capabilities of the Russian reconnaissance noted, and later in the autumn may become a nightmare for the AFU. The level of threat in Kherson region diminishing. Two attacks in Kherson region were thwarted on approach or before execution. Attack near Donetsk/Peski, too. Krasni Liman holds on, even though the enemy have not abandoned its attempts to attack. Eastern part of Kupyansk is under Russian control.

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#YURI Moscow responds subtly to the arrogant negotiation terms of Zelensky, as Donetsk, Lugansk and Kherson called to hold referendums to join the Russian Federation immediately. Simply put: "We are going to take several regions for now, later the conditions will be worse".

Militarily, not a very eventful day, but political repercussions of the referendum will likely affect the fronts. Andreevka bridgehead group is still getting pounded, and slowly retreats towards the river, unable to do anything. Ukrainian group destroyed attempting to cross Oskol river. The attacks on Krasny Liman are loosing momentum, but there are signs that enemy may be regroping, so another attack is possible. Russians took initiative near Ugledar taking several enemy positions in a reconnaissance by combat. Small skirmishes in Zaporozhye. Small advances in Bakhmut. Barbaric Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk.

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#YURI In a rare occasion, Yuri agrees with with the Russian MoD: the mobilization goes well, the newly trained units will start appearing on the front lines around New Year, and will be fully deployed in the coming spring. Third intent to attack Krasni Liman in Kharkov oblast, key defense node, repelled for now. The situation is still quite dangerous, despite the unprecedented intensity of Russian missile attacks, never seen even in February, and the valor of Krasni Liman defenders: storming the town, the enemy already lost more men than in entire Balakleya/Izyum operation. Tonight or tomorrow the enemy will most likely try again to turn the battle of Krasni Liman in their favor and the battle will reach its turning point.

Meanwhile, Wagners advance well in Bakhmut, forcing the Ukrainian troops to withdraw to the western part of the city blowing the only bridge behind. Successfull missile attack thwarted another possible attack on Zaporozhye. The rout of the Andreevka bridgehead continues. Español: @rpd_es

#YURI Ukrainian group near Liman in a rather risky position, in a a quite thin and large "appendix" corridor they carved trying to reach the rear of Liman group at all costs. That exposes this rather large group's flanks to a possible Russian counter-attack. The auxiliary attack from Dvorechye stalled. It increasingly looks like that Ukrainian command may already discard their previous plans to attack on Svatovo. The chances of large-scale successful Ukrainian offensives in the southern facade of the front diminishes as well.

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#YURI The situation in LIman worsens as enemy managed to create a number of crossings south of the city, and will apparently attack Zarechnoye, a village that holds the key to Liman, tomorrow. The battle for it will be very fierce. Both armies experience supply problems, but the tenacity of Liman garrison suggests that the Russian command is planning a counter-attack, moving the reinforcements. The battle cannot end in a draw anymore, it will be sink or swim for the AFU or the Russians.

Relative lull elsewhere. Andreevka bridgehead in Kherson oblast hit with a barrage of 500kg FAB bombs, leaving hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers dead or wounded. As a result, the bridgehead is reduced to a tiny patch by the river, if not relieved soon by the Ukrainian command, the bridgehead will cease to exist.

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#YURI Battle of Liman continues, its outcome will determine the whole course of hostilities. Despite fierce battles, the front lines haven't changed much during this day. Russian actions prevented the AFU from accumulating enough troops to attack the rear of the Liman fortified area by hitting the pontoon crossings over Severski Donets. Liman holds on, while eastern part of Kupyansk have been left by the Russian troops late night yesterday.

The enemy now has two quite comfortable bridgeheads over Oskol, and may well launch a next wave of offensive to wash off the political humiliation of the referenda, overwhelmingly in favor of joining Russia.

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#YURI Review of last two days: Krasni Liman, after 3 weeks of stubborn defence causing very heavy losses on the enemy, have been left by the Russian troops. Within the time it has left until the new contigents of the Russian Army reach the front lines, the enemy probably will try to exploit its advantage and undertake another offensive operation towards Svatovo that may fall as well. After that, any further offensive by the AFU will be hardly if at all possible.

Yuri concurs with the opinion expressed by Col. Khodakovsky, that the 3-week heroic defense of Liman bogged down the enemy offensive, and bought time the rest of the Army, making the enemy spend their best troops and reserves.

Also, Yuri notes the improvement in the Russian MoD - unusually, they recognized the loss of Liman the very day it happened, and hopes that the improvements there won't be limited to their deficient PR, very much criticized by Yuri and many other observers. Español: @rpd_es

#YURI considers the continuation of the strikes on the infrastructure of Ukraine a reasonable solution to avoid the further and greater bloodshed on both sides. The “bloodsuckers” of Kiev, he says, were shown their place today, and expect the morning with the same feeling as the people they hold hostage, as their future depends on Russia’s decision whether to continue with the strikes or not. If the stikes continue, Ukraine will face a complete infrastructure collapse very soon, and “will be bombed back into the Stone Age”. The objetive of today’s missile stikes, Yuri considers, was to cause a large-scale black-out in Ukraine.

As of the fronts, the situation gradually stabilizes, although the enemy have achieved a tactical success near Svatovo, establishing a bridgehead on Zherebets river. In Kherson, the attempt of attack of the enemy was thwarted. The Russians keep advancing near Bakhmut and Donetsk.

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