Forwarded from Rybar in English
✈️ 🇷🇺🇺🇦 How many more "Swifts" can use the AFU? - Rybar's analysis
This afternoon, Ukrainian formations launched another drone strike on the territory of Kireevsk in the Tula region. According to preliminary data, the AFU used the Tu-141 Strizh reactive UAV.
🔻 Why did the UAV crash in Kireevsk?
Ukrainian units periodically launch Soviet-made jet drones to assess the state of air defense in Russia. As a rule, a raid consists of one or two UAVs, but no more.
In this way, the AFU evaluate the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in different parts of the country: today the blow fell on the Tula region, in early March - in the Crimea, before that - in the Krasnodar Territory.
In some cases, the Swifts achieve their goals, as was the case in Tuapse, where they hit an oil depot, and in some cases they fall due to various reasons - external obstacles or guidance errors. But today's strike is more like "probing" the air defense and assessing how far the Tu-141 can fly from Ukraine undetected.
🔻 How many Tu-141/143 UAVs does the AFU have in total?
Mass production of jet drones Tu-141 "Swift" and Tu-143 "Flight" was stopped with the collapse of the Soviet Union. In Ukraine, these UAVs were assembled at the Kharkiv Aviation Plant.
In the period from 1978 to 1989 , 152 Swifts were produced at an enterprise in Kharkov, a significant part of which ended up in Ukraine. Judging by data from open sources, since the beginning of hostilities, the AFU have used 29 Tu-141 jet UAVs, one of which even flew as far as Croatian Zagreb. This suggests that the number of Tu-141s is limited, and they are saved for a special occasion. According to the highest estimates, the AFU have a total of up to 100 UAVs of this type. It is problematic to estimate even the approximate number of Tu-143s in Ukrainian formations, but they are hardly less than a few dozen.
🔻 Can the Tu-141 be re-produced?
The production technology is a thing of the past: there are neither specialists nor industrial facilities that have long been converted to other tasks.
🔻 Why are they hoarding?
The AFU are preparing for an offensive on Russian territory. Several operational-tactical assault groupings have been created to implement the strike plan in two main directions.
The first in the enemy command is considered Soledarskoe, and the second - Donetsk or Zaporizhia with several diversionary offensives in other sectors, including Ugledarsky, Kupyansky, Seversky and Kherson.
A few days before this, or at the time of the implementation of a large-scale plan, the AFU intend to launch a mass strike with drones on the territory of Russia, including in the deep rear.
Older Edda writes that up to 50 of these UAVs are now at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
🔻Unlike other drones, Soviet reactive UAVs are more difficult targets for air defense due to the ability to fly at extremely low altitudes and maneuver around the terrain.
And if there is a mass launch of UAVs, then with a high degree of probability the Swifts and Reisy will be in the second wave after the overload of Russian air defense, and the most important strategic and political objects of Russia, such as airfields and decision-making centers, will be chosen as targets for strikes.
#UAV #analysis #Russia #Ukraine Original msg.
This afternoon, Ukrainian formations launched another drone strike on the territory of Kireevsk in the Tula region. According to preliminary data, the AFU used the Tu-141 Strizh reactive UAV.
🔻 Why did the UAV crash in Kireevsk?
Ukrainian units periodically launch Soviet-made jet drones to assess the state of air defense in Russia. As a rule, a raid consists of one or two UAVs, but no more.
In this way, the AFU evaluate the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in different parts of the country: today the blow fell on the Tula region, in early March - in the Crimea, before that - in the Krasnodar Territory.
In some cases, the Swifts achieve their goals, as was the case in Tuapse, where they hit an oil depot, and in some cases they fall due to various reasons - external obstacles or guidance errors. But today's strike is more like "probing" the air defense and assessing how far the Tu-141 can fly from Ukraine undetected.
🔻 How many Tu-141/143 UAVs does the AFU have in total?
Mass production of jet drones Tu-141 "Swift" and Tu-143 "Flight" was stopped with the collapse of the Soviet Union. In Ukraine, these UAVs were assembled at the Kharkiv Aviation Plant.
In the period from 1978 to 1989 , 152 Swifts were produced at an enterprise in Kharkov, a significant part of which ended up in Ukraine. Judging by data from open sources, since the beginning of hostilities, the AFU have used 29 Tu-141 jet UAVs, one of which even flew as far as Croatian Zagreb. This suggests that the number of Tu-141s is limited, and they are saved for a special occasion. According to the highest estimates, the AFU have a total of up to 100 UAVs of this type. It is problematic to estimate even the approximate number of Tu-143s in Ukrainian formations, but they are hardly less than a few dozen.
🔻 Can the Tu-141 be re-produced?
The production technology is a thing of the past: there are neither specialists nor industrial facilities that have long been converted to other tasks.
🔻 Why are they hoarding?
The AFU are preparing for an offensive on Russian territory. Several operational-tactical assault groupings have been created to implement the strike plan in two main directions.
The first in the enemy command is considered Soledarskoe, and the second - Donetsk or Zaporizhia with several diversionary offensives in other sectors, including Ugledarsky, Kupyansky, Seversky and Kherson.
A few days before this, or at the time of the implementation of a large-scale plan, the AFU intend to launch a mass strike with drones on the territory of Russia, including in the deep rear.
Older Edda writes that up to 50 of these UAVs are now at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
🔻Unlike other drones, Soviet reactive UAVs are more difficult targets for air defense due to the ability to fly at extremely low altitudes and maneuver around the terrain.
And if there is a mass launch of UAVs, then with a high degree of probability the Swifts and Reisy will be in the second wave after the overload of Russian air defense, and the most important strategic and political objects of Russia, such as airfields and decision-making centers, will be chosen as targets for strikes.
#UAV #analysis #Russia #Ukraine Original msg.
Forwarded from Rybar in English
✈️ 🇷🇺🇺🇦 About the effectiveness of loitering shells "Lancet"
The Rybar team had at its disposal a rather amusing document with an analysis of the effectiveness and tactics of using loitering ammunition Lancet-1 and Lancet-3, conducted by the Ukrainian General Staff for the period 2022-2023. The authors tried to determine the pros and cons of drones and assess the level of threat emanating from them.
🔻What advantages did the enemy see at the device?
As the strengths of the Lancets, the Ukrainian command noted the equipment with modern multifunctional guidance systems and the possibility of their use against moving objects at a distance of up to 60 km.
In addition, the drones' small size, relative quietness, and composite construction make them extremely difficult targets for radar detection.
🔻 What were the shortcomings?
Among the shortcomings of the AFU, they noted a low flight speed (up to 100 km / h) and a not too large warhead (from one to five kilograms), which makes them ineffective against armored targets.
🔻 What do the General Staff of the Armed AFU think about these UAVs?
Kyiv believes that the mass supply of kamikaze drones of this type created serious problems for the units of the AFU in various directions. In total, since the beginning of their mass use , more than 200 pieces of artillery have been destroyed or damaged, especially American M777 howitzers.
At the same time, the duration of barrage of 30-40 minutes was recognized as sufficient to support the ground units of the Russian Armed Forces at the tactical level. However, the Ukrainian command believes that at the moment they are used only by military personnel in the SOF and mobile reconnaissance groups, which limits the capabilities of the infantry forces of the Russian Armed Forces.
The most dangerous period of their use is at night from 23.00 to 06.00 due to the difficulty in visual control of the air situation and determining the exact amount of flying ammunition.
❗️An interesting detail was indicated in the report: Lancets are usually used in conjunction with the Orlan-10 and Orlan-30 reconnaissance UAVs, as well as the Mohajer-4 and Mohajer-6 Iranian reconnaissance and strike UAVs ». Which is very strange, since ZALA reconnaissance drones are usually used in pairs.
Information about Russia's purchase of Iranian drones has been circulating on the net for quite a long time. And this document indirectly confirms the presence of Iranian-made reconnaissance and strike systems on the balance sheet of the Russian army.
Drones-kamikaze "Lancet" really demonstrated their high efficiency in defeating enemy artillery firing points. In combination with reconnaissance equipment with good optical systems, loitering ammunition becomes an effective means of fire suppression.
Therefore, now it is necessary to make every effort to provide reconnaissance and strike complexes to all units on the front line to the maximum. The massive use of "Lancets" at the front will significantly reduce the combat capabilities of the AFU on the eve of the announced offensive.
#UAV #Russia #Ukraine Original msg
The Rybar team had at its disposal a rather amusing document with an analysis of the effectiveness and tactics of using loitering ammunition Lancet-1 and Lancet-3, conducted by the Ukrainian General Staff for the period 2022-2023. The authors tried to determine the pros and cons of drones and assess the level of threat emanating from them.
🔻What advantages did the enemy see at the device?
As the strengths of the Lancets, the Ukrainian command noted the equipment with modern multifunctional guidance systems and the possibility of their use against moving objects at a distance of up to 60 km.
In addition, the drones' small size, relative quietness, and composite construction make them extremely difficult targets for radar detection.
🔻 What were the shortcomings?
Among the shortcomings of the AFU, they noted a low flight speed (up to 100 km / h) and a not too large warhead (from one to five kilograms), which makes them ineffective against armored targets.
🔻 What do the General Staff of the Armed AFU think about these UAVs?
Kyiv believes that the mass supply of kamikaze drones of this type created serious problems for the units of the AFU in various directions. In total, since the beginning of their mass use , more than 200 pieces of artillery have been destroyed or damaged, especially American M777 howitzers.
At the same time, the duration of barrage of 30-40 minutes was recognized as sufficient to support the ground units of the Russian Armed Forces at the tactical level. However, the Ukrainian command believes that at the moment they are used only by military personnel in the SOF and mobile reconnaissance groups, which limits the capabilities of the infantry forces of the Russian Armed Forces.
The most dangerous period of their use is at night from 23.00 to 06.00 due to the difficulty in visual control of the air situation and determining the exact amount of flying ammunition.
❗️An interesting detail was indicated in the report: Lancets are usually used in conjunction with the Orlan-10 and Orlan-30 reconnaissance UAVs, as well as the Mohajer-4 and Mohajer-6 Iranian reconnaissance and strike UAVs ». Which is very strange, since ZALA reconnaissance drones are usually used in pairs.
Information about Russia's purchase of Iranian drones has been circulating on the net for quite a long time. And this document indirectly confirms the presence of Iranian-made reconnaissance and strike systems on the balance sheet of the Russian army.
Drones-kamikaze "Lancet" really demonstrated their high efficiency in defeating enemy artillery firing points. In combination with reconnaissance equipment with good optical systems, loitering ammunition becomes an effective means of fire suppression.
Therefore, now it is necessary to make every effort to provide reconnaissance and strike complexes to all units on the front line to the maximum. The massive use of "Lancets" at the front will significantly reduce the combat capabilities of the AFU on the eve of the announced offensive.
#UAV #Russia #Ukraine Original msg
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇷🇺🇺🇦 ✈️ Colleagues from the Lostarmour portal have reported the 1000th published episode of Lancet loitering ammunition being used in the SMO zone. This time, the drone targeted the Grad MLRS southwest of Kurakhovo, about 20 km from the front line, using a thermal imaging camera.
▪️ According to the collected statistics on the use of Lancets since July 2022, 32% of the targets were destroyed. Another 52% were damaged or incapacitated.
▪️ In 49% of cases, the targets of the kamikaze drones were artillery installations such as self-propelled guns, towed howitzers, and MLRS. This makes the Lancet the most effective Russian counter-battery weapon currently.
▪️ Approximately 12% of the targets were anti-aircraft missile systems and radars of Ukrainian formations, which are relatively scarce and highly sought-after weapons by the enemy.
▪️ About 10% of the Lancets used were equipped with an auto-target acquisition system designed for effective operation in the presence of interference from enemy electronic warfare systems.
The list includes only objectively confirmed strikes; in reality, there are even more. However, the figure of 1,000 episodes clearly demonstrates the scale of production of these loitering munitions and their use by Russian troops.
#UAV #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
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▪️ According to the collected statistics on the use of Lancets since July 2022, 32% of the targets were destroyed. Another 52% were damaged or incapacitated.
▪️ In 49% of cases, the targets of the kamikaze drones were artillery installations such as self-propelled guns, towed howitzers, and MLRS. This makes the Lancet the most effective Russian counter-battery weapon currently.
▪️ Approximately 12% of the targets were anti-aircraft missile systems and radars of Ukrainian formations, which are relatively scarce and highly sought-after weapons by the enemy.
▪️ About 10% of the Lancets used were equipped with an auto-target acquisition system designed for effective operation in the presence of interference from enemy electronic warfare systems.
The list includes only objectively confirmed strikes; in reality, there are even more. However, the figure of 1,000 episodes clearly demonstrates the scale of production of these loitering munitions and their use by Russian troops.
#UAV #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
Support us Original msg
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LOSTARMOUR | Carthago delenda est!
Удар барражирующего боеприпаса "Ланцет" по РСЗО БМ-21 "Град" ВСУ в районе н.п. Курахово
1000-й опубликованный эпизод применения барражирующих боеприпасов "Ланцет" в зоне СВО!
1000-й опубликованный эпизод применения барражирующих боеприпасов "Ланцет" в зоне СВО!
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇹 🇷🇺 🇦✈️ The Turkish company Baykar has announced the start of construction of a plant for the production of UAVs in Ukraine. This plan has been discussed since 2022. According to the statement, the facility will be built near Kyiv in approximately 12 months, and it will employ about 500 people.
The exact location of the new enterprise is not yet known for certain, but it would make sense to place it on the premises of an existing industrial structure with a runway. The Antonov plant in Kyiv, as well as the Boryspil airport, are well-suited for this purpose.
At first glance, the construction of a plant under the conditions of periodic attacks may seem somewhat unrealistic. However, previous experience has shown that disabling such an object is not as easy as it may seem. For example, the Kharkov Armored Plant, after a series of precise attacks, was able to resume operations within just a month and a half. The combat units did not have enough power to destroy the main workshops and equipment inside.
On the other hand, Ukrainian forces are actively strengthening their air defense by acquiring new batches of Western air defense systems. The outskirts of Kyiv, in particular, are highly protected, with several Patriot batteries alone, in addition to other European and American defense complexes.
The emergence of the Baykar plant can only be prevented by a precise missile strike. This, in turn, depends on several factors, including the careful selection of targets and the availability of missiles.
#UAV #Kyiv #Turkey #Ukraine
@rybar
Support us: link Original msg
The exact location of the new enterprise is not yet known for certain, but it would make sense to place it on the premises of an existing industrial structure with a runway. The Antonov plant in Kyiv, as well as the Boryspil airport, are well-suited for this purpose.
At first glance, the construction of a plant under the conditions of periodic attacks may seem somewhat unrealistic. However, previous experience has shown that disabling such an object is not as easy as it may seem. For example, the Kharkov Armored Plant, after a series of precise attacks, was able to resume operations within just a month and a half. The combat units did not have enough power to destroy the main workshops and equipment inside.
On the other hand, Ukrainian forces are actively strengthening their air defense by acquiring new batches of Western air defense systems. The outskirts of Kyiv, in particular, are highly protected, with several Patriot batteries alone, in addition to other European and American defense complexes.
The emergence of the Baykar plant can only be prevented by a precise missile strike. This, in turn, depends on several factors, including the careful selection of targets and the availability of missiles.
#UAV #Kyiv #Turkey #Ukraine
@rybar
Support us: link Original msg
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇺🇸🇺🇦✈️ Who is behind the Project Maven?
Recently, we reported on the adjustment of some US weapons production programs after receiving data on the "testing" of drones, air defense systems, MANPADS and aviation in conflict zones from the territory of the so-called Ukraine to the Red Sea.
A lot of work is now underway in the aviation block of weapons, in particular, unmanned aerial vehicles. One of the largest projects in this area is Project Maven - a Pentagon program to create an AI-based surveillance platform for UAVs.
Its task is to create a system for the US military to deploy and monitor autonomous drones. This is an attempt to introduce advanced AI developments for warfare and to control combat operations and track, illuminate and expose targets in real-time without the involvement of an operator.
But the ambitions of the creators go far beyond simple filming and observation. And the programs of reformatting the American satellite group pose a direct threat to Russian strategic security.
🔻Read more on our website
#UAV #weapons #article #USA #Ukraine
@rybar
We hope you enjoyed the material from our team of analysts. We will be grateful for any support (here is a convenient link for payment via SBP). Original msg
Recently, we reported on the adjustment of some US weapons production programs after receiving data on the "testing" of drones, air defense systems, MANPADS and aviation in conflict zones from the territory of the so-called Ukraine to the Red Sea.
A lot of work is now underway in the aviation block of weapons, in particular, unmanned aerial vehicles. One of the largest projects in this area is Project Maven - a Pentagon program to create an AI-based surveillance platform for UAVs.
Its task is to create a system for the US military to deploy and monitor autonomous drones. This is an attempt to introduce advanced AI developments for warfare and to control combat operations and track, illuminate and expose targets in real-time without the involvement of an operator.
But the ambitions of the creators go far beyond simple filming and observation. And the programs of reformatting the American satellite group pose a direct threat to Russian strategic security.
🔻Read more on our website
#UAV #weapons #article #USA #Ukraine
@rybar
We hope you enjoyed the material from our team of analysts. We will be grateful for any support (here is a convenient link for payment via SBP). Original msg
Проект «Рыбарь»
Кто стоит за проектом "Мавен"?
Одним из наиболее крупных американских проектов в области создания беспилотников с ИИ является Project Maven. Это программа Пентагона по созданию...