🇩🇪❗️Germany received a request from Poland to re-export Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine - representative of the German Cabinet

🇺🇦⚡The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine fired:

📍Vyacheslav Shapovalov - Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine;
📍Ivan Lukeria - Deputy Minister of Communities and Territories Development of Ukraine;
📍Vyacheslav Negodu - Deputy Minister of Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine;
📍Vitaly Muzychenko - Deputy Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine.

Also fired:

📍Valentin Reznichenko - head of the Dnepropetrovsk OVA;
📍 Oleksandr Starukh - head of the Zaporozhye OVA;
📍Aleksey Kuleba - head of the Kyiv OVA;
📍Dmitry Zhivitsky - head of the Sumy OVA;
📍Yaroslav Yanushevich is the head of the Kherson OVA.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 The 155th brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 7th ranger OBTF began moving in the Ugledar direction.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡In the Ugledar direction, the successful advance of our troops continues. The offensive was so coordinated and sharp that it came as a surprise to the enemy. Judging by the radio intercepts, the Ukrainian soldiers on this sector of the front are disoriented and confused.

🇧🇾🇷🇺❗Units of one of the mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, as part of the combat coordination of the regional group of forces (RGV), have begun to remove equipment from long-term storage - Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus

Soon 😁

🇷🇺🇺🇦 ⚡Prigozhin on the objectives of the actions of PMC "Wagner" in the Artemovsk region.

“The task of taking Bakhmut is to destroy the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of the city and prevent any offensive actions in any direction of the front. All of their combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are sent to Bakhmut. And PMC "Wagner" destroys them, opening up operational opportunities in other areas "(c) Prigozhin

🇷🇺🇺🇦❗The Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to counterattack the Russian Armed Forces near Ugledar and lost 200 people - RT

🇺🇲🇺🇦⚡The Biden administration is considering sending a "significant number" of Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
The announcement could be made as early as this week.

The Wall Street Journal

🇨🇿🇺🇦 The Czech Republic cannot supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks, because they are needed to ensure the country's own security, the Czech prime minister said.

🇺🇦🇧🇾 Ukraine warns Minsk against any possible further aggressive plans. For our part, we confirm the absence of any aggressive intentions towards Belarus.

- Speaker of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

It already looks like a prayer. So the inevitable is near.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Destruction of a Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicle with a guided 152-mm projectile "Krasnopol"

🇺🇦 Another large-scale cemetery

🇺🇦 Mobilization in Krivoy Rog, where Zelensky was born in his time. By loud cries of joy, you yourself can assess the intensity of the desire to serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

🇩🇪🇺🇦 German Chancellor Scholz decided to send Leopard 2A6 battle tanks to Kiev - Spiegel

The timing of the transfer of tanks is still unknown. We are talking about 10 tanks.

🇳🇴🇺🇦 Norway considers delivery of 8 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine — Dagens Naeringsliv

⚡️🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukrainian sources now advise the avoidance of the M-23 Highway, confirming that it has likely been operationally cut by Russian artillery. The route marked in green to the North is the 00506 regional road, which we reported yesterday as likely the last road available to the AFU.

Notably, this Ukrainian map also shows Russian positions far further forward than reported by Russian sources themselves, a trend that has been noted by many commentators the past week.

Seen on Pro-Ukie Twitter today, it’s worth contextualizing this:

1) What, exactly, is the AFU supposed to do with shell shortages for two years?

2) 90,000 a month is 1,080,000 per annum. Current Russian rates are estimated at around 3.4 million and expected to increase.

Further, such ambitious plans need to be taken into review with extreme skepticism. Recent analysis by CSIS revealed that the current production rate is less than 4,000 shells a month. Back in December, the U.S. Army stated it's intent to increase the rate up to 20,000 per month (240,000 per year) by the spring of 2023 and 40,000 per month (480,000 per year) by 2025. Thus, there is no margin for a sixfold increase over a shorter span of time, which should be obvious given the U.S. currently only has one RDX/HDX plant functioning in the entirety of its territory.

As CSIS continues, at this surge rate it would take about six years to rebuild inventories allowing for normal peacetime usage and assuming no further transfers from inventory. Given transfers to Ukraine is the rationale behind the expansion of capacity in the first place, it is thus notable that CSIS directly states even the 2025 surge rate would satisfy only a third of the needs based upon the Summer of 2022 firing rates of the AFU.

“Markets are definitely buying into the "China is back" theme. We're tracking the strongest inflow into China since 2020 (orange). That's coming at the expense of the rest of EM, as investors increase their allocations to China and cut their allocations everywhere else...”

- Robin Brooks