Intel Slava Z
Seen on Pro-Ukie Twitter today, it’s worth contextualizing this: 1) What, exactly, is the AFU supposed to do with shell shortages for two years? 2) 90,000 a month is 1,080,000 per annum. Current Russian rates are estimated at around 3.4 million and expected…
Further, such ambitious plans need to be taken into review with extreme skepticism. Recent analysis by CSIS revealed that the current production rate is less than 4,000 shells a month. Back in December, the U.S. Army stated it's intent to increase the rate up to 20,000 per month (240,000 per year) by the spring of 2023 and 40,000 per month (480,000 per year) by 2025. Thus, there is no margin for a sixfold increase over a shorter span of time, which should be obvious given the U.S. currently only has one RDX/HDX plant functioning in the entirety of its territory.
As CSIS continues, at this surge rate it would take about six years to rebuild inventories allowing for normal peacetime usage and assuming no further transfers from inventory. Given transfers to Ukraine is the rationale behind the expansion of capacity in the first place, it is thus notable that CSIS directly states even the 2025 surge rate would satisfy only a third of the needs based upon the Summer of 2022 firing rates of the AFU.
As CSIS continues, at this surge rate it would take about six years to rebuild inventories allowing for normal peacetime usage and assuming no further transfers from inventory. Given transfers to Ukraine is the rationale behind the expansion of capacity in the first place, it is thus notable that CSIS directly states even the 2025 surge rate would satisfy only a third of the needs based upon the Summer of 2022 firing rates of the AFU.
CSIS
Rebuilding U.S. Inventories: Six Critical Systems
Are U.S. weapons inventories getting too low because of transfers to Ukraine? Although most inventories are acceptable, some key munitions will take many years to replace. Often, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition.
“Markets are definitely buying into the "China is back" theme. We're tracking the strongest inflow into China since 2020 (orange). That's coming at the expense of the rest of EM, as investors increase their allocations to China and cut their allocations everywhere else...”
- Robin Brooks
- Robin Brooks
🇨🇳 “After the Chinese government lifted its Zero Covid policies, forecasters now expect to see annual GDP growth march forward at over 5%"
- Unheard
- Unheard
UnHerd
Life after Zero Covid: markets bet big on China
This may be the year that we see a great divergence take place in the global economy and markets. As investors and commentators in Europe and America fret about a recession, those who look east towards China see the opportunity for robust economic growth.…
⚡️🇨🇳🇺🇸 “China’s Ministry of National Defense is certainly preparing as well. If McCarthy visits Taiwan this spring, then a new Taiwan Straits crisis will be inevitable.”
- Hu Xijin, Global Times commentator
- Hu Xijin, Global Times commentator
🇺🇦 Foreign mercenaries are leaving certain areas of Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) against the backdrop of the active advancement of the forces of PMC "Wagner" already directly within the city.
Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, signed a law on toughening criminal liability for desertion, refusal to comply with an order, etc.
Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, signed a law on toughening criminal liability for desertion, refusal to comply with an order, etc.
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Iraqi Hezbollah destroying western tanks
Soon these tanks will have the same faith but in much larger numbers 😁
Soon these tanks will have the same faith but in much larger numbers 😁
🇺🇲🇺🇦 Biden is due to announce deliveries of Abrams tanks to Ukraine on January 25
Washington plans to send 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev. The transfer process can take months or even years. Thus, the United States will fulfill the condition of Germany, which, following the Americans, will begin deliveries of Leopard tanks to the Militants
Washington plans to send 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev. The transfer process can take months or even years. Thus, the United States will fulfill the condition of Germany, which, following the Americans, will begin deliveries of Leopard tanks to the Militants
Intel Slava Z
🇺🇲🇺🇦 Biden is due to announce deliveries of Abrams tanks to Ukraine on January 25 Washington plans to send 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev. The transfer process can take months or even years. Thus, the United States will fulfill the condition of Germany, which…
From March of 2003 to March of 2005, approximately 80 Abrams were knocked out of action by insurgents in Iraq. Of these, 63 were eventually repaired but 17 were damaged beyond repair. Many of those recovered were damaged via improvised means such as IEDs. The destroyed, however, were largely because of Russian weapons systems:
>During the Iraq War, Kornets were used by some groups of Iraqi special forces to attack U.S. armored vehicles, disabling at least two Abrams tanks and one Bradley infantry fighting vehicle in the opening week of the war.
Same performance was seen in 2006:
>The second verified episode of the Kornet ATGM in combat use occurred during the 2006 Lebanon War, where the missiles, reportedly supplied by Syria which were reverse-engineered Kornets produced in North Korea,[33] were used by Hezbollah fighters to destroy up to four Israeli Merkava tanks.[34] Kornets pierced the armor of 24 tanks in total.
The attached pictures should speak volumes.
>During the Iraq War, Kornets were used by some groups of Iraqi special forces to attack U.S. armored vehicles, disabling at least two Abrams tanks and one Bradley infantry fighting vehicle in the opening week of the war.
Same performance was seen in 2006:
>The second verified episode of the Kornet ATGM in combat use occurred during the 2006 Lebanon War, where the missiles, reportedly supplied by Syria which were reverse-engineered Kornets produced in North Korea,[33] were used by Hezbollah fighters to destroy up to four Israeli Merkava tanks.[34] Kornets pierced the armor of 24 tanks in total.
The attached pictures should speak volumes.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 In Kramatorsk, successful coverage of the APU accumulation in the industrial zone. A significant number of dead and wounded AFU soldiers are reported. There were several arrivals.
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡Kiev's plans for an offensive in the Zaporizhia region have been thwarted - the authorities
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Crews of Russian self-propelled artillery mounts "Hyacinth" destroyed concentrations of Ukrainian military personnel during the offensive in the Zaporozhye direction.
🇹🇷❗️Turkey may leave NATO in five to six months due to provocative actions against Ankara
This opinion was expressed by the Deputy Chairman of the Turkish Motherland Party, Ethem Sanjak.
This opinion was expressed by the Deputy Chairman of the Turkish Motherland Party, Ethem Sanjak.
🇺🇲🇺🇦❗️Kiev will be able to receive Abrams tanks not earlier than in a year - CNN
🇧🇾🇷🇺 Pilots practice reconnaissance, patrolling and suppression of enemy air defense during exercises of the Russian Federation and Belarus - Belarusian Defense Ministry
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Unique footage. In the National Park of the Holy Mountains in the Liman direction, an armored vehicle Kazak-1 was discovered and destroyed on the move from the Hyacinth. For a 152-mm gun to hit a moving target - I don't think I've ever seen anything like this.
🇨🇴🇺🇦 Colombia will not supply Ukraine with Soviet military equipment
“Not a single piece of Russian equipment, in whatever condition it may be on our territory, will be used in this conflict,” Colombian President Gustavo Petro said.
“Not a single piece of Russian equipment, in whatever condition it may be on our territory, will be used in this conflict,” Colombian President Gustavo Petro said.
Intel Slava Z
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Air alert declared throughout Ukraine
Ukrainian TG channels write that the alarm was announced due to the take-off in Belarus of the MiG-31K of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which is a potential carrier of the Kinzhal missiles.